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基于灰色模糊综合评判和专家系统的煤矿电网预警系统研究

Research on Early-warning System of Coalmine Power Grid Based on Grey Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation and Expert System

【作者】 赵铁英

【导师】 王玉梅;

【作者基本信息】 河南理工大学 , 控制理论与控制工程, 2009, 硕士

【摘要】 电力是煤矿生产的主要动力,煤矿电网的安全运行是保证煤矿正常生产的重要条件之一。由于煤矿环境特殊,煤矿电网所处环境恶劣,使得煤矿电网的故障多有发生,且故障发生具有随机性和偶然性,电网故障给煤矿的正常生产和人员设备安全产生极大的影响。因此,有必要进行煤矿电网的安全运行预警研究,以便在电网发生故障前发现故障征兆,提前采取必要防范措施,将故障影响降至最小。本文首先分析了模糊综合评判、灰色综合评判和专家系统各自的原理及应用特点,提出了模糊综合评判与灰色综合评判相融合进行煤矿电网运行状态分析预警的基本构想。在分析煤矿电网的供电特点及电网安全运行主要影响因素的基础上,采取模糊综合评判与灰色综合评判相结合的方法,选取电网评判指标,建立电网运行影响分层判断矩阵,根据各指标值的变化判断未来煤矿电网运行状态,并采用不同颜色表示不同的电网状态,若判断未来电网状态将低于某一等级则发出预警信号。针对不同预警结果,利用专家系统在分析判断方面的优势,建立电网综合状态评判专家系统,利用专家知识对电网评判预警结果进行分析判断,给出需要采取的电网调控措施。系统仿真结果表明,该方法可以准确判断电网可能发展趋势,对电网可能发生的故障进行预警。最后对煤矿电网预警系统进行了软件设计,采用Visual Basic编制用户界面,调用专家系统知识库数据,图形化显示系统预警及判断结果,操作界面友好,图形显示直观形象。

【Abstract】 Electricity is the main power supply of coalmine production, the safe operation of coalmine power grid is one of the most important guarantees to ensure normal production of coalmines. Due to the special environment in coalmines, coalmine power grid lies in a very bad environment, making coalmine power grid faults occurred occasionally, and the fault has a random and accidental occurrence, which brings great impact to normal production of coalmine and safety of equipments and personnel. Therefore, it is necessary to study early warning of coalmine power grid safe operation, in order to find signs of fault before it occurs, and to take necessary precautions to minimize the impact of the fault.First of all, this paper analyses the characteristics and the basic principles of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation、gray comprehensive evaluation and expert system, a method combined fuzzy comprehensive evaluation with gray comprehensive evaluation is proposed, to analysis and judge the coalmine power grid state. Based on analysis of the characteristics of the coalmine power grid and main factors on safe operation of power grid, this paper takes a method combined these two evaluation methods, selects power grid evaluation indicators, sets the impact judgment hierarchical matrix of power grid operation , judges the coalmine power grid state in the future by those index value changes, and uses different colors to indicate different power grid states, gives early warning signals if the state is below a certain level. In view of the different early warning results, taking advantage of expert system in analyses and judgments, this paper establishes the power grid state comprehensive evaluation expert system, uses expert’s knowledge to analysis power grid early warning signals to decide the necessary control measures of power grid. Simulation results show this method can accurately determine the possible development trend of power grid, and can give early warning signals on the fault that may occur.Finally, software of coalmine power grid early warning system is designed, the paper uses Visual Basic to make interface, calls expert system knowledge base data, display early warning result and judgments graphically, and it has a friendly interface and displays the image graphically and intuitively.

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