【作者】 李辉；

【导师】 霍伟东；

【作者基本信息】 西南财经大学 ， 国际贸易， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 全球经济一体化程度不断加深和科学技术的发展为各个国家和地区的企业在全球范围内配置资源提供了必要条件,从而也带来近年国际贸易的繁荣。改革开放以来,我国外贸产业迅速发展,成为拉动我国经济发展的重要引擎之一。随着我国要素禀赋变化、科技进步以及全球产业布局的不断调整,我国出口商品结构不断优化,资本-技术密集型产品的出口比重逐年增加,贸易竞争力指数呈现逐年上升的态势。然而,这是否证明我国出口商品结构完全符合我国的实际?这样的出口商品结构是否可以为推动我国经济持续稳定发展提供源源不断地动力?如果答案是否定的,那么我国出口商品结构的目标应该是什么,影响因素又是哪些?基于以上疑问,本文首先对国内外有关决定出口商品结构理论进行整理,主要分为三类：一是建立在比较优势基础上的出口商品结构决定理论；二是建立在保护国内产业基础上的出口商品结构决定理论,三是建立在战略性贸易政策理论基础上的出口商品结构决定理论。理论二对于国内经济刚刚起步,产业基础比较薄弱的发展中国家更为适用,理论三则更适用于经济高度发展,在全球范围内进行战略布局的发达国家。而对于我国来说,改革开放三十年来,经济发展取得了巨大的进步,已经成为世界第三大经济体,具有相对成熟的产业基础；但是,我国仍然是一个发展中国家,现阶段不具备在全球范围内实行战略贸易政策的条件。基于以上分析,本文选择更符合我国实际的理论一作为分析的基础。本文通过对中国对外贸易的统计数据进行分析得出,从1980年至今我国出口商品机构经历了从资源密集型为主、劳动劳动密集型为主和资本技术密集型为主的三个阶段。对出口商品竞争力(TC指数)进行分析的结果显示,目前我国出口商品结构的特征是,资源密集型产品所占比重较小,在国际竞争中处于比较劣势；劳动密集型产品占比重较大,呈现较强的竞争优势：资本技术密集型产品的比重逐年攀升并且正在由比较劣势向比较优势转变。基于这一事实,本文第四章分别从要素结构、技术进步、外商直接投资和汇率变化对中国出口商品结构升级的影响进行了理论分析和实证分析。首先通过定性分析研究要素禀赋和外商直接投资对出口商品结构升级的影响路径,而后定量分析上述两种要素变化对我国出口商品结构升级的贡献系数;其次通过从技术投入和技术产出两个方面研究技术进步对我国出口商品结构的影响程度；最后通过数理推导分析汇率变化影响我国出口商品结构升级路径。我国对外贸易得到了长足的发展,但是我们应该看到我国对外贸易结构仍面临着一些问题,尤其是2008年下半年全球性经济危机爆发以来,我国外贸产业受到了巨大的冲击,具体表现为出口额持续下降,主要贸易伙伴国针对我国反倾销、反补贴调查不断,这些都严重制约了我国外贸产业的发展。然而,同为出口大国的德国、日本等国家的出口受到的影响却明显小得多。因此本文从影响出口商品结构升级的关键因素——调整产业结构、优化要素禀赋、促进技术进步、加强引导外商投资等方面对出口商品结构调整策略提出了对策和建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Deepening globalization and the development of science and technology provide the necessary conditions for enterprises in various countries and regions worldwide allocation of resources, which also brought prosperity and development of international trade in recent years. Since reform and opening up, Chinese foreign trade industries are rapidly developing as an important driving Chinese economic development engine. With the changing of Chinese factor endowment, as well as the continuous adjustment of the global industrial distribution, and improve the structure of Chinese exports:In this paper, through analysis Chinese foreign trade statistics since 1980, we know that Chinese export sector has experienced mainly three stages from the resource-intensive, labor-intensive and capital-and technology-intensive. based on the export competitiveness (TC index) analysis of Chinese current export structure, we concluded that Chinese export structure is characterized by a relatively small proportion of resource-intensive products but also in the international competition at a comparative disadvantage; labor-intensive products accounted for a larger proportion, showing a more a strong competitive advantage; the proportion of capital-and technology-intensive products has increased steadily, and is a comparative disadvantage to comparative advantage by the change. Based on this fact, the upgrade of Chinese export mix factors affecting the theoretical and empirical analysis that the escalation of Chinese export mix there are four major reasons:Chinese changes in the structure factor, technological progress, foreign investment in China and exchange rate changes.Although Chinese foreign trade industry has been significant progress, but we should see that Chinese foreign trade structure still faces some problems, particularly in the second half of 2008 global economic crisis, Chinese foreign trade industry has suffer a huge impact on industry, specifically the performance of for the continuous decline in exports, the main trading partners for Chinese anti-dumping and countervailing investigations continued, seriously hampered the development of Chinese foreign trade industry. However, with the exporting country for Germany, Japan and other countries, exports have been affected significantly less. Therefore, this article will discuss the main factors which influence Chinese export structure, including optimize the factor endowments, promote technological progress, strengthen guidance in terms of foreign investment,and then provide some put forward opinions and suggestions to improve Chinese export structure.更多还原