【作者】 张海东；

【导师】 刘应安；

【作者基本信息】 南京林业大学 ， 森林经理学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 土地利用/土地覆盖变化是近年来地理学界研究的热点。我国东部经济发达地区人地矛盾十分突出,土地动态变化及其驱动力研究对保护和合理利用其有限的耕地资源具有重要意义。随着科技的发展,遥感（RS）与地理信息系统（GIS）在土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）上的研究日益成熟。通过RS与GIS技术的运用,可以方便快捷、省时省力地对土地利用变化进行有效的监测。本研究将RS、GIS技术与统计方法综合运用。首先,通过对2000年、2005年和2008年三期遥感影像数据进行人机交互解译,建立了2000年至2008年浙江省耕地动态变化数据库。其次,建立各土地利用类型间的转移矩阵、单一土地利用类型动态度模型和综合土地利用动态度模型,对浙江省土地利用变化方式进行了分析。最后,以浙江省耕地变化为例,详细论述了其时空变化过程,借助于多元线性回归和Markov方法预测了研究区域的耕地变化趋势,并利用主成分分析法及岭回归分析法定量研究了耕地变化的驱动力及其特征。研究结果表明,2000²008年间浙江省各类单一土地利用类型动态度分别为:K_耕地 =-1.44%, K_林地 =-0.1%, K_草地 =0.34%, K_水域=1.52%, K_未利用地 =0.5%,K_{城乡工矿居民用地} =10.79%;综合土地利用动态度为0.271%。就浙江省耕地而言,2000 ²005年及2005²008年两阶段,耕地年动态度分别为-1.42%和-1.46%,多年平均为-1.44%,耕地主要转变为城乡工矿居民用地。耕地减少的驱动力研究结果表明:与20世纪比较,新增的非农人口比例、房地产开发投资、城市绿化面积驱动因子与传统的果园面积驱动因子一起,构成了21世纪初浙江省乃至东部发达地区耕地变化的主要驱动力。更多还原

【Abstract】 The land use/land cover change (LUCC) is the research heat point of geographical circles in recent years. The contradiction between people and land is conspicuous in the developed areas of East China. The study on land dynamic change and their driving forces of the developed areas in the eastern part of China is of great help to protect and reasonably use the limited cultivated land resources. With the development of technology, Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) used on LUCC are becoming more and more mature. The effective monitor carried out by means of RS and GIS is convenient and time-saving.Firstly, in the support of RS and GIS technology, images of 2000, 2005 and 2008 were employed. According to the human-computer-interaction interpretation, the cultivated land dynamic change database of Zhejiang province between 2000 and 2008 was established. Secondly, with the help of land transition matrix, single 1and use type model and comprehensive 1and use type model, the paper researched the land change of Zhejiang. At last, taking the cultivated land for example, the paper researched the temporal-spatial character in detail and predicted the area of cultivated land in the future by means of the linear regression and Markov method. Meanwhile, the driving forces index of cultivated land change was also studied by using principal components analysis method and ridge regression analysis method.The results showed that the land change of Zhejiang Province was obvious during the study, the dynamic degree of cultivated land between 2000 and 2008 was -1.44%, while the value of forest was -0.1%, the value of grass land was 0.34%, the value of water was 1.52%, the value of residential and residential and industrial land was 10.79%, and the value of unused land was 0.5%. The value of comprehensive 1and use change was 0.271%. To the cultivated land solely, the change was obvious, the dynamic degree of 2000~2005 step was -1.42%, while the dynamic degree of 2005~2008 step was -1.46%, and the population mean value is -1.44%. Most of the changed cultivated land was turned into residential and industrial land. Compared with the 20th century, the new factors, non-agricultural population ratio, real estate development investment, urban green coverage area, together with the traditional orchard area factor, consisted of the main driving forces of cultivated land change of Zhejiang province and even the developed areas of East China in the early 21st century.更多还原