【作者】 贾琳；

【导师】 景普秋；

【作者基本信息】 山西财经大学 ， 西方经济学， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 2008年下半年由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机,冲击了中国大部分省域的经济增长,其中以煤炭资源开发为支撑的山西省经济下滑幅度剧烈,2009年第一季度成为全国唯一经济负增长的省份。作为资源型省域,山西经济表现出经济波动幅度显著高于非资源型省域,其原因主要在于:经济的周期性变化导致煤炭价格波动幅度大于一般的产品,必然造成以煤炭产业为支柱的资源型区域的波动性发展。为什么煤炭价格波动剧烈,它如何影响区域经济发展?对这一问题的研究,成为近年来学者关注的热点之一。论文在文献梳理的基础上,尝试从影响煤炭价格波动的因素即煤炭价格形成机制、供求弹性、产业组织方式、心理预期以及国际不确定性因素等方面入手,对煤炭价格波动的成因及其对区域经济发展的影响进行经济学分析;并以煤炭资源丰富的山西省为例,对煤炭价格的波动以及对山西经济发展的影响进行实证分析,提出相关政策建议。从理论上对能源价格、资源型区域经济增长等相关理论有一定的补充作用,现实中对山西省防范煤炭价格波动对区域经济的影响可以起到一定的借鉴作用。论文主要得到以下几点结论。(1)当经济发展处于上升趋势引起煤炭需求增加时,由于资源储量与生产周期的制约,煤矿企业很难在短时间内扩大生产规模;煤炭资源开发区域的政府出于地方经济保护,对煤炭的产量会有适度地控制,煤炭供给量不会有相应幅度变化,即煤炭供给价格弹性小;同时由于心理预期作用,即估计煤炭价格会有进一步的上涨,煤矿企业会库存一些煤炭以待高位时卖出,导致煤炭价格进一步上涨,上涨幅度比一般的产品要高。当经济发展处于下滑趋势引起煤炭需求减少,由于煤炭产业资产专用性强、退出壁垒高,煤炭行业退出的企业少、供给量不会有相应的减少,导致了煤炭价格的进一步下跌,下跌幅度高于一般的产品。(2)煤炭价格波动对煤炭资源依赖型区域的经济持续发展带来影响,引起区域经济增长波动幅度大、反工业化现象以及收入差距扩大等社会问题。煤炭价格波动,降低了行业竞争能力,导致部分矿业企业无序竞争,矿业发展秩序混乱;当煤炭价格上涨时,会加剧煤炭开发区域的反工业化现象,当煤炭价格下跌时,会形成煤炭开发区域的锁定效应;同时煤炭价格的波动会加剧生态环境的破坏,也会引发收入差距扩大等一系列的社会问题。(3)对煤炭资源丰富的山西省进行实证分析,验证了上述的理论假说:山西煤炭价格波动比一般商品价格波动幅度大;煤炭的供求价格缺乏弹性;煤炭价格与山西省GDP有长期稳定关系,且为同向变化,煤炭价格变化与山西省财政收入关系明显;煤炭价格的上涨给山西省带来了反工业化现象;煤炭价格上涨引发安全生产难题;煤炭价格的上涨会在一定程度导致收入差距拉大。更多还原

【Abstract】 The financial crisis, triggered by The U.S. subprime mortgage crisis on the second half of 2008, impacted the economic growth of most provinces in chin. Among them, the economy of Shanxi Province that supported by the extraction and development of coal resources confronted a severe downturn, and became the only province that had a negative economic growth in the first quarter of 2009. As a resource-based province, the economic fluctuation of Shanxi was significantly higher than other non-resource-based provinces. The main reason is: the cyclical changes in economy led to the greater volatility of coal prices than of ordinary products, which will inevitably contribute to the volatilitized development of the resource-based region that regards the coal industry as its pillar industry. Why could the coal price be volatilized, and how does it affect the development of regional economy? Research on these issues has become one of the hot-points that attract the attention of scholars in recent years.Based on the general-view of the literatures, this article attempts to start with the factors influence the fluctuations of coal price, that is, formation mechanism of coal price, elasticity of supply and demand, industry organization, psychological expectations, and international uncertainties, and conduct economic analysis of its impacts on the regional economic development; meanwhile, take the coal-rich province Shanxi for example, and empirically analyze the fluctuation of coal price and its the impacts on the economic development of Shanxi, with proposing relevant policy recommendations. This article would Theoretically complement the correlated theories such as energy prices, growth of resource-based regional economic, and realistically be available for reference that prevent the impact on the regional economy of Shanxi Province caused by fluctuations in coal prices.This article would achieve conclusions as follows.(1) As the resource reserves and production cycle constraints, when the economy is on an upward trend and lead to the increases of coal demand, the expansion of production scale gets difficult in the short period of time for the coal-mining enterprises; since local economic protection of the government in the coal-extracting areas, the output of coal could be properly controlled and the coal supply would not be correspondingly changed, that is, the price elasticity of coal supply is low; meanwhile, because of the psychological expectations, ie. estimates have been done that the there will be a further increase in coal prices, the coal-mining companies then will stock the coal for selling when the prices get high. Such kind of behavior leads to the further rise of coal prices and the rates are always higher than the ordinary products. When the economic development is in decline and leading to reduce the demand of coal, due to the strong Asset Specificity of coal industry, high exit barriers, and less enterprises of the coal industry, resulting in a further drop in coal prices, and the rates the rates are always higher than the ordinary products.(2)Fluctuations of coal prices influence the sustained development of the coal-dependent regions’economy, causing a large fluctuation in regional economic growth, the phenomenon of anti-industrialization, income disparities and other social problems. Fluctuations of coal prices reduce the competitiveness of the industry, and lead to disorderly competition in some coal- mining companies; when coal prices go up, it will exacerbate the phenomenon of anti-industrialization in coal-development areas, when coal prices go down, it will bring locking effect; and fluctuations of coal prices might increase the damage of ecological environment, widening income gap and leading to a series of social problems.(3) The empirical analysis of the coal-rich Shanxi Province verifies the theoretical hypothesis above: Coal price volatility in Shanxi is larger than the fluctuations of the ordinary commodity; the coal price of supply and demand is price inelastic; coal prices have stable relationship between GDP in Shanxi Province in the long-term and with the same direction of change, meanwhile, the changes in coal prices in Shanxi revenue relationship are obvious; oal prices in Shanxi Province brings the phenomenon of anti-industrialization; coal price increases lead to safety problems; coal prices will result in income gap to some extent.更多还原