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我国贸易模式动态演进：理论与实证分析
The Dynamics of Chinese International Trade Patterns: Analysis of Theories and Empiricas
【作者】 刘飞；
【导师】 张先锋；
【作者基本信息】 合肥工业大学 ， 区域经济学， 2010， 硕士
【摘要】 贸易模式及其演进是国际贸易理论中的基本问题之一,这个问题的核心在于考察一国进出口产品的贸易格局、影响因素以及进一步演进的方向。改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易迅速发展,但对外贸易失衡的现象日益显现。2008年全球性经济危机爆发后,国际上贸易保护主义重新抬头,引起了学者们对我国现行贸易模式的关注。在理论上,本文从产业间-产业内贸易模式演进的宏观因素和微观机制两个方面展开分析。在对贸易模式演进的宏观因素分析中,本文研究了我国贸易模式演进的历程与现状,分析了多种内外因素对贸易模式的影响。通过研究,我们发现：初始要素禀赋、对外直接投资、全要素生产率、产业集中度是影响贸易模式动态演进的深层因素。要促进贸易模式从初级向高级演进,必须重视这些因素与贸易模式的相互关系。在实证上,本文选取了我国1980-2008年的工业部门数据,动态分析了我国贸易模式的演进及其影响因素,并对影响贸易模式演进的因素选用了平稳性检验,协整关系检验,误差修正模型检验,Granger检验,VAR模型的脉冲响应函数等计量方法。研究结果表明：在短期,全要素生产率、产业集中度与我国贸易模式演进呈正相关关系,初始要素禀赋、对外直接投资与我国贸易模式演进先呈负相关关系然后呈正相关关系,但从长期来看,这些因素都呈正向稳定的关系。最后,基于前面的理论和实证分析,本文提出了我国应该在一段时期内扶持劳动密集型企业,同时培育高新技术产业,改善贸易结构,积极促进中国贸易模式的演进。
【Abstract】 As one of the basic problems in international trade theories, international trade pattern and development is oriented on studying the trade status, influential elements and further developing direction of a country’s imports and exports. Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, our foreign trade has enjoyed a rapid growth but at the same time the imbalance of foreign trade is increasingly emerging. After the explosion of global economic crisis in 2008, trade protectism reappeared in the world, which aroused scholars’attention to our current trade patterns.Theoretically, this thesis analyzes the problem from the following two aspects-macroscopic element and microcosmic system of inter-and intra-industries trade pattern development. When it comes to the macroscopic element, this thesis has done a research on the history, status quo and stages of the development of our trade pattern and also worked on the influence of domestic and foreign elements.Considering authentic examples, the author has selected the data of technical ministries from 1980-2007 to achieve a supportive result. Based on the data, the author studies the development and influential elements of our trade pattern from a dynamic angle and applies Unit Root Test, Cointegration Test, Error Cirrection Model, VAR-impulse response function to evaluate the elements. It can be summed up from the various results that a long, stable relationship exits between the four index and development of trade pattern.To conclude, from what the author has achieved by analyzing theories and authentic examples, China should assist and support labor-centered enterprises, cultivate high-tech industries, improve trade structure and facilitate positively the growth of Chinese trade pattern.