【作者】 毛锐；

【导师】 谢雪梅；

【作者基本信息】 北京邮电大学 ， 项目管理， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 金融危机的大背景下,各行各业都在缩减开支、节约成本,很多互联网企业选择使用虚拟化来降低自身的运营成本。虚拟化技术源于上世纪60年代,其核心思想是在一个物理主机上虚拟出多个虚拟计算机并在其上同时运行多个客户操作系统,由于技术门槛高只出现在一些大型机上。20世纪末VMware提出的软件虚拟化才使虚拟化技术真正开始普及。进入21世纪,计算机技术高速发展,x86架构的性能越来越强,从客观上降低了虚拟化的门槛。Xen、Hyper-v的出现更是引发了一轮新的虚拟化热潮,各企业的IT部门也不约而同地看上了这颗救命稻草。根据IT168在2008年底的一项调查,有28.8%的受访者表示正在使用虚拟化,32.2%的受访者表示将在未来一年使用虚拟化。笔者所在的企业也从降低硬件成本、运营成本等角度出发决定实施虚拟化项目。通过对风险管理理论知识的学习,我们认识到风险是客观存在并贯穿项目生命周期始终的,不以人们的意志为转移,做好项目的风险管理,对于项目的成功实施有着举足轻重的作用。对于一个项目来说,不同的战略战术会给项目带来不同的影响,同时也会带来不一样的风险。在本文的实例中,我们使用SWOT分析法对优势、劣势、机遇和挑战进行分析,制定不同的战略,最终选择一个最适合企业实际情况的战略,以这个战略为依据制定以后的风险管理计划。在制定了风险管理计划后根据项目特点选择相应的风险识别工具,对项目风险进行识别,本文的案例中主要使用了头脑风暴法和专家调查法,经过风险识别得到了两级风险因子。对于虚拟化方案选择这个风险因子,我们选择使用决策树法进行风险的定性、定量分析,而其他的风险因子我们使用了RAC法,对每个风险因子进行分析评价,从而为制定的风险应对策略提供指标。针对虚拟化项目的特点,我们在制定风险应对策略时尽量采取主动的风险应对方法。项目实施过程中使用十大风险事项追踪法进行风险监控,在本文的案例中通过风险监控发现了风险应对策略的不足,项目组根据风险监控的反馈及时更改了风险应对策略,从而保证了项目的顺利实施。本文通过对项目管理理论,风险管理理论的学习,结合实例的实践,总结出了虚拟化项目实施中风险管理的方法,对其他企业实施虚拟化项目提供了参考依据,也为其他IT项目的实施提供了参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Under the pinch of the financial crisis, all sectors are shrinking expenses to save costs. Many dot.com companies apply virtualization to reduce its operation cost. Vir-tualization, originated from 1960s, has the core idea of setting multiple virtual com-puters in one physical host and simultaneously running multiple customer operation system on the virtual ones. The technology is only applied in some mainframe com-puters due to the high technical threshold. At the end of the 20th century, the software virtualization raised by VMware became popular. Upon the access of the 21st century, the computer technology develops rapidly. The x86 architecture’s performance is more powerful, objectively lowering the threshold of virtualization. The appearance of Xen and Hyper-v triggered a new virtualization upsurge and caught the eyeballs of IT de-partments of many enterprises. A survey made by IT168 at the end of 2008 indicates that 28.8% of total interviewees are using virtualization and 32.2% of them will apply the technology within one year. The enterprise I am serving for also decided to employ virtualization project from the aspect of reducing hardware and operating costs.Different strategies will have different influences and risks to a same project. In the examples, SWOT analysis is applied for preparing different strategies and selecting a most suitable one to work out the future risk control plan.Corresponding risk identification tools are applied to identify project risks after working out risk management plan. Brainstorm and expert investigation are used in the cases below to define risk factors of two levels after identification. Decision tree is se-lected to make quantification and qualification risk analysis to the virtualization plan. RAC is used for analyzing other risk factors. Thus indexes are provided to define risk response strategy. According to the project of virtualization projects, we mainly apply active risk response methods when preparing risk strategy. Tracing ten risks is applied for risk monitoring during project deployment. Through risk monitoring, the insuffi-ciency of risk response strategy is discovered. The project team timely modified the risk response strategy according to the feedback of project risk monitoring, thus en-suring the smooth deployment of the project.The thesis summarizes the risk management methods for virtualization project deployment through the combination of project and risk management theories and practices, providing references for virtualization and IT projects deployment in other enterprises.更多还原