【作者】 李旭东；

【导师】 肖艳；

【作者基本信息】 华东师范大学 ， 世界经济， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 资本形成和资本积累对一国经济的发展起着至关重要的作用,资本形成的总额依赖于一国储蓄的水平、储蓄的规模以及储蓄向投资转化的效率。目前,我国仍处于工业化的阶段,需要保持一定的储蓄率并不断地转化为投资,投入到经济建设中去。对我国的储蓄、投资以及二者之间的相互关系进行分析,有利于发现存在的问题,以进一步调整储蓄和投资的规模和结构,促进我国经济又好又快的发展。根据新古典经济学的相关理论,储蓄是恒等于投资的,但是现实状况并非如此。一国的利率、交易成本、税收以及信息的不完全与不对称等许多因素都会影响到储蓄和投资的平衡。本文通过对我国储蓄投资相关性的实证研究发现相比于世界其他国家,尤其是发达国家,我国储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低。本文首先对储蓄和投资的概念进行界定,分别使用广义的储蓄和实物投资对我国储蓄和投资的相互关系进行分析,并回顾了对储蓄和投资的理论研究。然后,本文对现有的各种研究储蓄投资相互关系的模型进行了分析,并选取了合适的模型,利用我国1980年至2008年之间储蓄和投资的时间序列数据,对我国储蓄和投资的相关性进行实证分析,得出了二者之间稳定的长期均衡关系和相对较小的相关系数。通过深入分析本文发现,产生储蓄和投资的相关程度偏低这一现象的首要原因并不是因为我国储蓄不足导致投资来源不足,而恰恰是因为我国储蓄过多,储蓄率偏高,消费率偏低,消费的不足抑制了投资的增长,才导致了储蓄和投资之间的相关性降低；其次是我国储蓄向投资转化的路径不畅,转化效率不高,降低了储蓄和投资之间的相关性；而且近些年来我国不断提高的资本流动性,对二者的相关性也产生了一定的影响。最后,针对分析出的原因,本文提出了通过缩小贫富差距,改革住房、医疗等消费难点,完善股息分配政策等政策措施来降低国民储蓄率,提高消费率；通过发展民营银行,改革利率形成机制,大力发展证券市场等手段提高储蓄向投资转化的效率更多还原

【Abstract】 Capital formation and capital accumulation are very important to the economic development. Capital accumulation depends on the saving rate and the transformation efficiency from saving to investment of the country. Our country is on the stage of industrialization, we need a lot of investment to develop our economy. It is necessary to research the correlation between saving and investment and find out the problems between them.According to the theory of neo-classicalism, the saving should be identical to the investment. However, they are not equal in the real world. The interest, tax, cost of trade and others factors affect the balance of the deposits and the investment of one country. This text analyzes the correlation between saving and investment of our country, the result shows the coefficient of our country is lower than other countries, especially the OECD countries. The main part of the text is trying to explain the result, and putting forward some related solution.The text defines the concept of saving and investment and introduces the factors which will affect them. Using the method of time series analysis, the author takes a positive analysis using the data of saving and investment of 1980-2008, and makes a conclusion of long-term and related coefficient between them. After this, this text also analyzes the dynamic relations of them.The rest part of the text explains the result of the analysis. There are three reasons for the low coefficient, the international capital mobility, the high saving rate and the low efficiency of transformation. And the text also raises some relative policies. First, reduce the gap between the rich and the poor, improve the social security system and use other policies to reduce the saving rate and raise the consumption rate. Second, develop the private banks and capital market to increase the transformation efficient.更多还原