【作者】 金红梅；

【导师】 金成晓；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 数量经济学， 2010， 硕士

【副题名】基于谱分析方法的计量研究

【摘要】 房地产业是国民经济的重要组成部分,在一个国家和地区的国民经济体系中,有着非常重要的地位和作用。它是国民经济的基础性产业和先导性产业,在一定条件下,房地产业更是国民经济的“晴雨表”。因此,分析我国房地产行业的景气波动,对促进房地产行业和整个国民经济的健康发展,以及维护整个社会的稳定都具有十分重要的意义。作者撰写本论文的目的就是将时间序列中的谱分析估计方法应用到房地产行业景气波动分析中,通过对全国房地产开发投资总额1999-2008年的月度数据进行谱分析,证实了房地产行业对整个国民经济的先导作用,也进一步通过房地产行业的景气波动来预测整个国民经济的景气波动情况。全国房地产开发投资总额,是住宅投资开发建设及出售数量的指标,反映的是全国范围内的房屋兴建量,一般被认为是未来经济发展的领先指标。本文为了研究房地产行业的景气波动,在实证方面采取了时间序列中的谱分析方法。首先分析了作为先行指数行业的房地产行业景气波动对国民经济周期波动的预测和引导作用,再根据所分析的房地产行业的景气波动,给予国家宏观经济政策以有力的建议,作者对全国房地产行业开发投资总额进行了季节性调整,平稳性检验,剔除了趋势和季节因素后的循环项进行谱分析,把离散的全国房地产开发投资总额样本分解到频域上来进行研究。希望以此来判断房地产行业的景气波动趋势,进一步预测整个国民经济的景气波动。再根据预测结果向国家的相关政府部门提出合理的宏观经济政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The real estate industry is a complicated sector engaging in investment, development, management and service. It features as fundamental, driving and risky. The three sections in real estate including investment, development, management occupy a 93% proportion of the whole real estate economy, so this thesis commit to analyze the current situation of the development and investment of our country’s real estate industry. From 1999 to 2008, our country’s real estate industry grow dramatically, it has become one of the most important industries in national economical progress.In the beginning of the year 2008, preferential conditions are spread in buying houses. The developers are eager to boost economy of the real estate through such methods. In 2009, with the loose currency credit policy, lots of money rush into the market of real estate, the vibrant market cause a lot of consumers who urgently need houses give up waiting, and buy the house promptly. The ascents of the housing prices appeal many property investors to seek exorbitant profits. With the interaction of the rigid demand for houses and lucrative market, between 3, 2009 and 7, 2009, many big cities around the country continually hit the records of transaction volume. After the 8, 2009 the transaction volumes continually decrease, so the turning point becomes the focus of people’s talk. Will the property price drop, how much will it drop? Currently, such problems relevant to the property price and fluctuation of the market have become a hot issue.We name the indicators leading index which expand, contract and hint before the running of the whole national economy. When the leading index rises, it forecast the economy will rebound after a short time, the whole economy prosperity will advent soon. When the leading index descends, it forecast the whole economy will shrink, into the recession period. So, we can speculate the variation of the whole national economical prospect, through analyzing the numerical changes of the leading index.The overall investment in the development of the national real estate reflects the amount of the construction nationwide. It indicates the number of house being built and been sold, generally it is considered as the leading index for future economical progress. This thesis picks up the data of the national real estate investment between 1999 and 2008 as the original sample. All of the data comes from“Chinese economical prospect report”. Because of the loss of a month’s data, we have to speculate it first. Based on this, we make seasonal adjustment for the monthly data of the national real estate investment, stability also is tested. Such methods ensure the data not to be influenced by the season, or other irregular factors. It is a stable sequence because of no unit root. After the data is preliminarily processed, we take the sum of money invested in the real estate into the frequency domain, then make spectrum analysis. In the end, we ensure the precision of the results.With the demonstration of this thesis, the result reveals: from 1, 1999 to 12, 2008, the spectrum peak of the money invested in real estate appeared around the year 2000; the spectrum value is relatively high between 1999 and 2005. Through analyzing the third section of the spectrum image, we can deduce that after the year 2006, 2007 or so, the sum of money invested in the land development will gradually decreases. It has also proved, with the impact American subprime mortgage economical crisis, Chinese real estate industry will face a downturn. The spectrum image shows that between 2007 and 2008 the whole investment of real estate goes into the trough lowest for the nearest 10 years; it foretells the coming of the macro-economy crisis.This thesis can speculate the fluctuation of macro-economical climate index, through the spectrum data analysis of the real estate industry. As we take the total sum invested in the real industry as the leading indictors, it is proved feasible and accurately. But there also exist a series of problems in Chinese real estate market, the housing structural contradiction in some areas is still outstanding, the commercial.Housing price soars, the supervision system of the market is not perfect, the information system of the market is not complete, etc. The government continues to reinforce the housing security system, stabilize the progress of the real estate market, support the entrepreneur to act positively with the alteration of the market, push forward the sales with a reasonable price, strengthen the speculation and test for the situation of the real estate, reorganize and standardize the order of the real estate market. All of these questions will affect the collection of the data and the construction of the model, and then it will influence the decision and speculation for the whole process of the macro-economy.更多还原