【作者】 刘宇；

【导师】 章帆；

【作者基本信息】 北京工业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2010， 硕士

【摘要】 本文详细介绍了将响应曲面方法应用到乘用车市场分析的过程步骤,并以2008年的中国乘用车市场的数据作为实证研究,证明了该方法的可行性。将响应曲面方法应用到该领域不仅是对响应曲面方法应用领域的扩展,同时对乘用车市场分析方法的拓展方面也有重要意义。本文提出应用响应曲面方法分析乘用车市场的销售数据,确定不同因子的权重及因子的交互作用,并解析乘用车市场的量化规律。影响乘用车市场销售量的因素有很多,本文主要分析的是乘用车价格,以及不同车型间交互影响的作用对乘用车销售量的影响。响应曲面方法是数学方法和统计技术相结合的产物,是用来对所感兴趣的问题进行建模和分析的一种方法,目的是找到被众多因素所影响的响应的最优值。响应曲面方法一直在工程领域中应用,但在市场分析等经济领域并没有得到过很好地运用。正是基于此,本文提出将响应曲面方法扩展到经济分析应用领域,以乘用车市场为研究对象,通过深入解析其市场销售数据,从而对乘用车市场的变化规律产生深刻的量化认知。本文介绍了响应曲面近几年的方面的发展,作为对响应曲面方法理论方面的归纳总结。在第三章中,详细介绍了应用响应曲面方法分析乘用车市场的具体步骤,包括:对乘用车市场的建模、回归模型的参数估计、回归模型参数估计的计算过程和回归模型的诊断。通过建模、参数估计、计算、误差分析等过程,完整的介绍了响应曲面应用于乘用车市场的具体方法,为后面的分析奠定了坚实的理论基础。乘用车市场中的汽车种类繁多,关系复杂。数据非常分散、无规律。为了能够更好对数据进行分析,更清晰的量化出乘用车市场,需要对乘用车市场进行价值分类。本文对2008年中国主要乘用车市场中127款车型进行了分类研究。各型主要乘用车的销售量和价格完全是由市场决定的,根据市场数据对主要乘用车进行价值分类是实证研究,其结果具有客观公正性。通过市场细分得到不同市场的价值,五类市场的价值分别为1.35亿元、6.87亿元、28.03亿元、58.58亿元和87.04亿元。因此,中国主要乘用车总体市场价值不低于180亿元。确定了价值分类之后,本文对五类细分市场分别用响应曲面方法进行建模、计算、分析和归纳,得到了五类细分市场对应的响应曲面函数以及车型的影响权重和车型间的相互影响权重。通过本文的分析,可以帮助厂商明确各自市场竞争的对手,精确制定市场营销策略和整体经营战略。因此本文的研究具有一定的实际意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper introduces the response surface method, which is applied to the car market analysis. The process steps of vehicle market analysis using response surface is given in this paper. Then we set an example of 2008 China vehicle market data as empirical research, which can prove the feasibility of this method. Using Response surface method to the fields is not only to extend application of Response surface method, but also have great significance to the car market analysis development.In volatile external environment, how to maintain its normal production and sales now becomes a major concern of the main problems. Hoping enterprises have better development must have a profound understanding of the market law. In this paper response surface method was used in analysis of the car market sales data. Then we defined different factor weights and factor interactions and analyzed the passenger car market quantization rule.Response surface method (RSM) is mathematics method and the outcome of the combination of statistical techniques. RSM is used for interested problem of modeling and analysis, which is a new method for purpose to find out the optimal value of the response among influence factors. Response surface method has been applied in engineering field, but in the market analysis and economic fields have received very good use. Based on this, the paper puts forward the response surface method will be expanded to economic analysis on passenger cars, the market as the research object, by analyzing its market sales data deeply, so as to change rules of passenger car market profound quantification.This paper introduces the response surface in recent years, as the development and summary of response surface method. After that we is put forward using the response surface method in passenger car market analysis. In the third chapter, we detailed introduced the specific steps of the response surface method analysis application of the passenger car market, including modeling and parameter estimation, the calculation and error analysis, etc. this paper complete introduced the specific methods about that response surface applied in passenger car market through steps above. The introduction about specific steps laid a solid theoretical foundation for the analysis below.The car passenger market is variety because of the complex relationship. In order to better data analysis, a clear measure of a car market, we need to take the car market value for classification. This paper studied on the classification of market value about China’s major passenger car for 127 classification model in 2008. It is empirical research that the value classification for main vehicle is obtained according to the market data. Each major car sales and prices is completely determined by the market. As a result that the classification of market value we got is objective. China main passenger car market can be divided into five types of market segmentation according to the market value. Different market segments can be got through the market value. market value of five segmentations is respectively 1.35 billion Yuan, 6.87 billion Yuan, 28.03 billion Yuan, 58.58 billion and 87.04 billion Yuan Therefore, main passenger car market value in China is more than general 180 million Yuan.After determining the value about the classification, this paper did modeling, calculation, analysis and induction respectively with five kinds of market segmentation using response surface method, and got the weight of five kinds of market segmentation and models of mutual influence weight among the corresponding response surface function models. Through analysis of this paper, we can define manufacturers’respective market competition, and help manufacturers accurate formulate marketing strategy and overall business strategy.更多还原