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基于灰色关联分析的入境旅游需求影响因素研究
Study on Influential Factors of Inbound Tourism Demand Based on Grey Relational Analysis
【作者】 杨名桂;
【导师】 杨晓霞;
【作者基本信息】 西南大学 , 人文地理学, 2010, 硕士
【副题名】以重庆市为例
【摘要】 要对入境旅游市场进行开发,必须以入境旅游需求影响因素的分析作为科学依据。本文根据国内外学者对旅游需求影响因素及入境旅游需求影响因素的研究,总结了所有影响入境旅游需求的因素,运用专家问卷调查法,对入境旅游需求影响较大的因素进行了选择,认为对入境旅游需求影响较大的因素有客源地人均GDP、客源地居民可自由支配收入(人均国民收入)、旅游资源条件、旅游相关基础设施投资额、星级饭店水平、国际旅行社数、重大活动举办次数。旅游系统是一个巨大的灰色系统,用灰色关联分析对入境旅游需求影响因素进行分析具有很强的针对性。在对入境旅游需求影响因素进行量化之后,建立了入境旅游需求影响因素灰色关联分析的模型,以重庆市为实证研究,分析了重庆市入境旅游需求影响因素与重庆市入境旅游客流量和重庆市国际旅游外汇收入之间的灰色关联度,分别对关联度进行排序。得出了旅游相关基础设施水平与旅游资源条件是影响重庆市入境旅游需求的最大因素,星级饭店水平和重大活动举办次数对重庆市入境旅游需求有显著地影响,而客源地的经济发展水平和国际旅行社数对重庆市入境旅游需求的影响较小。最后,提出了加快重庆市入境旅游快速发展的措施在于:加大对旅游接待设施的投资;提高旅游资源知名度,推出精品旅游产品;合理建设星级饭店;增加重大活动举办次数;大力开拓散客旅游市场;积极开发潜在客源市场。
【Abstract】 The suitable basis of exploiting inbound tourism market is the analysis of influential factors of inbound tourism demand. This paper summarized all influential factors of inbound tourism demand at the base of analyzing influential factors of tourism demand and inbound tourism demand, then selected the influential factors of tourism demand which are more important than others from questionnaire survey from experts, deemed that the influential factors of tourism demand which are more impotent than others are per GDP of passenger origin countries of inbound tourists, disposable income (per national income) of passenger origin countries of inbound tourists, tourism resources, investments of infrastructure is been related to tourism, the level of star-hotels, numbers of international travel agencies, numbers of great activities.Tourism system is a huge grey system, grey relational analysis is a completely way in analyzing influential factors of inbound tourism demand. Firstly, this paper quantified influential factors of inbound tourism demand, established the model of grey relational analysis to influential factors of inbound tourism demand, at the case of Chongqing, this paper analyzed grey degrees of relations between influential factors of inbound tourism demand and Inbound Tourism Flow、Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism in Chongqing, sorted the different grey degrees of relations. According the results, it is shows that investments of infrastructure is been related to tourism and tourism resources are the most important factors in influential factors of inbound tourism demand in Chongqing, the level of star-hotels and numbers of great activities have a notable influence in influential factors of inbound tourism demand in Chongqing, but, the level of economic of passenger origin countries of inbound tourists of Chongqing and numbers of international travel agencies have few influence in influential factors of inbound tourism demand in Chongqing. At last, this paper elaborated some proposals for inbound tourism of Chongqing: expanding the investments of infrastructure is been related to tourism; enhancing the reputation of tourism resources, recommending the elaborate tourism product; building star-hotels rationally; increasing numbers of great activities; developing individual tourist market and potential passenger origin.
【Key words】 Inbound Tourism; Tourism Demand; Grey Relational Analysis; Influential Factors; Chongqing;
- 【网络出版投稿人】 西南大学 【网络出版年期】2010年 08期
- 【分类号】F590.6
- 【被引频次】10
- 【下载频次】1197