【作者】 李浩宾；

【导师】 牛志广；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 城市供水系统是城市建设与发展的重要基础设施,是生命线工程之一。“9·11”事件之后,美国政府认为城市供水系统也可能成为恐怖袭击的目标,要求服务人口超过3300人的供水系统都要进行脆弱性分析,专家学者对此进行了大量的研究,并将研究成果应用于水司的日常管理中。而国内在这一领域的研究还很少,缺乏系统的城市供水系统脆弱性分析方法。本文为了填补国内在这一研究领域的空白,也为了给供水部门提升系统安全性提供科学依据,力求在国内外现有研究基础上,提出一种城市供水系统脆弱性分析方法。首先,在分析了脆弱性、承灾体脆弱性、生态系统脆弱性、水资源脆弱性、地下水脆弱性的概念之后,结合城市供水系统的特点,提出城市供水系统脆弱性的概念,为下文进行脆弱性定量化分析奠定基础。其次,根据城市供水系统脆弱性的概念,确定其计算方法为威胁水平与功能缺失程度的乘积。分析总结城市供水系统面临的自然威胁和人为威胁。对于自然威胁,利用查阅历史资料的方法确定其威胁水平以及供水系统的功能缺失程度;对于人为威胁,利用美国Sandia国家实验室开发的马尔科夫潜在影响模型(Markov Latent Effects model,MLE)确定其威胁水平,利用EPANET模拟城市供水系统在人为威胁发生后不能满足用户对水量、水质、水压要求的程度,进而确定整个供水系统的功能缺失程度。最后,利用本文所提出的城市供水系统脆弱性分析方法,对天津KGWL供水系统的脆弱性进行了定量化分析。通过查阅资料确定其潜在的自然威胁为地震,并确定了地震的威胁水平以及供水系统功能缺失程度;通过实地调研设定了10种人为威胁模式,利用MLE计算其威胁水平,对比KGWL供水系统在人为威胁发生前后的运行状态确定其功能缺失程度。最终得出KGWL供水系统脆弱性分析结果,提出改进其系统安全性的措施,并通过计算验证了这些措施能够降低系统的脆弱性。通过本文的研究,提出了一套城市供水系统脆弱性定量化分析的方法,能够为供水部门进行安全评价提供参考依据,具有一定的理论意义和实用价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Urban water supply system is not only an important infrastructure for urban construction and development, but also one part of the lifeline project. After the attack of September 11, 2001, the U.S. government believed that the urban water supply system may also become a target of terrorist attacks, and required that the vulnerability analysis should be carried on when the service population of the system is more than 3300. Experts have conducted a great deal of research, and the results were successfully applied to the water supply system for its daily management by the water supply department. However, domestic research in this area was infrequence, and systemic vulnerability analysis methods for urban water supply system were lacked. In order to fill the gaps and provide scientific reference to enhance the security of urban water supply system by water supply department, the vulnerability analysis methods for unban water supply system need to be developed based on the home and abroad research.First of all, the concepts of the vulnerability, vulnerability of hazard bearing body, ecological system vulnerability, water resource vulnerability, and groundwater vulnerability were analyzed respectively. Combining with the character of urban water supply system, the concept of vulnerability for urban water supply system was put forward, which lay a foundation for the following quantitative calculation of vulnerability.Secondly, based on the concept of vulnerability of urban water supply system, the calculating method of vulnerability of urban water supply system was determined as the product of threat level and function loss. The natural and man-made threats to water supply system were summarized simultaneously. As for the natural threats, the threat level and the degree of function loss was determined by using historical information. The man-made threat level was determined by the Markov Latent Effects model (MLE) developed by the U.S. Sandia National Laboratory. The extent that the urban water supply system can not meet the requirement of users, such as water quantity and quality, and the pressure, were simulated by EPANET when the man-made threat happened, then the function loss degree of the whole water supply system was determined. Finally, the vulnerability of Tianjin KGWL water supply system was analyzed based on the vulnerability analysis method proposed in this paper. Through field survey, earthquake was identified as the potential natural threat, and then its threat level and function loss was calculated. As for the man-made threat, 10 kinds of potential threats were ascertained through field survey and the threat level was calculated by using MLE. The degree of function loss was determined by comparing the running state between man-made threat occurred before and after. Eventually, the result of the vulnerability of Tianjin KGWL water supply system was calculated. Some measures to improve the security were provided, which could reduce the vulnerability of the system verified by computing.A set of quantificational analysis method on vulnerability of urban water supply system was presented in this paper. This method can provide reference for the security assessment by water supply department, and has a certain theoretical and practical value.更多还原