人民币汇率升值及现行汇率制度改革思路研究

【作者】 孟岩；

【导师】 孙新雷；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 西方经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 自2005年7月21日人民币汇率制度改革以来,人民币坚持持续、渐进、稳步升值。进入2008年,升值步伐加快,再加上日益复杂的国内国际局势,出现了很多质疑的声音,那么,人民币持续升值的原因是什么?人民币升值对我国和世界而言是利大于弊还是弊大于利?我国目前所实行的有管理的浮动汇率制的缺陷是什么,其实质是否仍是钉住美元制?由升值引出的制度的缺陷该如何完善?对这些问题的回答就是本文的研究内容。本文以2005年汇改以来人民币汇率的持续稳步升值为研究背景,从升值所引发的一系列问题着手,分析了我国现行汇率制度的实质和缺陷。在购买力平价理论和利率平价理论的基础上,分别从经济增长、国际收支状况、外汇储备情况、货币供应量、通货膨胀因素、中外利率差异、中央银行的干预、市场预期等内部原因和外部原因相结合对人民币汇率对美元的持续升值原因加以分析,指出升值是必要的,关注的核心问题应该是升值的方式。对于人民币升值的影响,本文从内部和外部影响两方面来分析,将理论与实际相结合,得出升值对我国乃至世界而言都是利弊并存的。政府应从制度着手来解决问题,如何规范现有的汇率制度,如何消除市场上强烈的升值预期将是其目前工作的重点。最后又从扩大浮动区间、渐进开放资本项目、培育健全的外汇市场等方面提出完善有管理的浮动汇率制度的建议,指出随着人民币汇率制度改革向纵深方向推进,随着相应配套措施的逐步完善,随着中国经济的良性发展,最终实现我们理想中的资本账户完全开放、人民币汇率市场化的自由浮动汇率制度是可以预见的。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform of RMB exchange rate system in July 21, 2005, RMB adhere to a sustained, gradual and steady appreciation. In 2008, the pace of appreciation go faster, coupled with the increasingly complex international and domestic situation, a lot of doubt in the voice, then what is the reason for the continued appreciation of RMB? Is it more advantages than disadvantages or more harm than good in china and in the world? What are the shortcomings of Chinese current implementation of a Managed Floating Exchange Rate System, is it still the dollar peg system? How to improve the shortcomings of the system arising from the appreciation? The answers to these questions are the content of the article.The background is the sustained and steady appreciation of RMB since the reform in 2005, from a series of problems triggered by the appreciation, the article analyze the essence and the real flaws of Chinese current exchange-rate system. On the basis of Purchasing Power Parity theory and Interest Rate Parity theory, the analysis of the reasons for the continued appreciation of RMB exchange rate against U.S dollar, from economic growth, the international balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, money supply, inflation, the different interest rate between China and foreign countries, the central bank intervention, the expectation of the market, and other internal and external reasons respectively, pointing out that revaluation is necessary, the core issue of the concern should be the way of the appreciation. About the impact of the appreciation of RMB, the analysis coming from the impact of both internal and external aspects, by combining theory and reality then come to the conclution that the impact of appreciation to China and the world is in terms of the coexistence of all the pros and cons. The government should proceed to resolve the issue from the system, the focus is how to standardize the exchange rate system, how to eliminate the strong appreciated expectation of the market at present. Finally, the article give the suggestions to make perfect the Managed Floating Exchange Rate System by expanding the floating range, the gradual opening of the capital projects, and cultivating a sound foreign exchange market, then point out that as the RMB exchange rate system reform goes into deep direction, with the gradual improvement of the corresponding measures and Chinese healthy economic development, it is foreseeable to achieve our hope of completely open capital account and RMB Free-Floating Exchange Rate System with market-oriented exchange rate eventually.更多还原