预防性储蓄动机对上海城市居民消费行为影响的实证分析

【作者】 彭卫华；

【导师】 武长河；

【作者基本信息】 上海师范大学 ， 政治经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 消费和储蓄问题一直以来都是学术界的研究热点。在吸收理性预期思想的基础上,预防性储蓄理论将不确定性引入分析框架,分析了消费者跨时优化选择行为,是对生命周期假说和持久收入假说的重要拓展。改革开放以来,中国政府根据国内外形势制定和实施了一系列措施。这些政策措施使我国宏观经济得到了稳定高速的发展,综合实力大大提高,居民储蓄水平也随之持续超常增长,形成了中国改革开放以来的居民高储蓄现象。然而,高储蓄率不仅降低了消费水平,使居民生活质量达不到较高水平,而且也导致我国经济发展内需不足。针对这一问题,国内学者引入西方预防性储蓄理论来解释这一现象并寻求解决方法。多数研究发现,预防性储蓄理论能很好地解释高储蓄低消费现象。也有学者结合我国经济体制中存在的流动性约束问题分析了居民的消费行为。这些研究多数是居民消费行为的全国性分析,很少有对上海城市居民消费行为的分析,而且这些研究主要分析收入不确定性对居民消费行为的影响,很少分析支出不确定性的影响。上海是中国的经济金融中心,是长三角地区经济发展的龙头。这里也面临储蓄率较高、居民消费率相对偏低的问题。研究上海城市居民的消费行为,对增强上海市经济发展的内在动力和中国经济健康平稳的发展有重要意义。本文借鉴西方预防性储蓄理论,结合上海城市化率很高这一特点,分析预防性储蓄动机——收入和支出两种不确定性——对上海城市居民消费行为的影响。首先,对国内外预防性储蓄研究进行综述。其次,分析上海城市发展历程中城市居民消费行为特征,进而分析收入不确定性和支出不确定性的存在性。文章最后,搜集并整理了1978～2007年上海城市居民的可支配收入、消费支出和居民消费价格指数数据。从线性消费函数推导出反映上海城市居民消费行为的ECM模型。运用EVIEWS5.0软件分析得出预防性动机显著存在。分析结果还表明,未来支出不确定性对上海城市居民消费行为的影响超过收入不确定性的影响。第四章和第五章是本文的重要章节。本文认为可以从以下三个方面减少预防性储蓄动机,以提高上海城市居民的消费水平:第一,完善收入分配制度,提高居民可支配收入才能提高消费水平;第二,尽快完成体制改革,完善社会保障体系,降低消费支出不确定性;第三,促进消费升级,为消费增长提供空间,提高上海城市居民消费率。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumption and saving theory have been popular in academic research. Introduced in the rational anticipated thoughts, Precautionary saving theory adds uncertainty analysis into the framework and analyzes the consumers’ optimal intertemporal choice. It is the important development of life cycle and permanent income model of consumption.Since the reformation, Chinese government constituted and implemented a series of policies on the basis of the domestic situation and international position. These made economy quickly develop and the comprehensive national strength also had the bigger exaltation, our country got brilliant and obvious achievements in many aspects. The level of the residents’ savings also kept persistent and fast increase which became the phenomenon of high savings from the reformation. However, the high savings of residents not only lowered the consumptive level, kept the quality of people’ s life on a low level and also bring out insufficient domestic demand in China’ s economic development. Aiming at this kind of problem, partial scholars already analyzed the reasons from the angle of the precautionary saving currently, which were based on the theories about the precautionary saving in western country and the increases of the future incertitude of the residents that were brought about by a series of reformatory measures. Most studies found that precautionary saving theory can explain low consumption but high savings phenomenon very well. Many scholars also studied consumers’ behavior under the liquidity constraints which comes from China’s economic reformation. Most of these studies were about the national residents’ consumption behavior, rarely on the residents’ consumption behavior in Shanghai city. Still these studies mainly focus on the income uncertainty of consumer behavior, ignored the expenditure uncertainty of consumer behavior.Shanghai is China’ s economic and financial center and the leader of economic development in the Yangtze River delta region, where the high saving but low consumption phenomenon also exits. It is very important for the economy of shanghai even China to develop steadily and healthily, that study Shanghai urban residents’ consumption behavior. The research of this paper is based on the theories of the precautionary savings. Considering the high urbanization of Shanghai, We attempt to find the influence income uncertainty and expenditure uncertainty brings to shanghai residents respectively. Firstly, the author reviews precautionary saving research and introduces the latest development. Then , analyzes the characteristics of Shanghai urban residents’ consumption behavior during Shanghai urban development and the existence of income and expenditure uncertainty. Finally, collecting and processing the data of disposable income and expenditure and consumer price index from 1978 to 2007. Deduced the ECM models from linear consumption function, applying EVIEWS5.0 to find the precautionary motive significantly exists. The result also showed that the effect of expenditure uncertainty of Shanghai urban residents’ consumption behavior is more significant than income uncertainty. The fourth chapter and the fifth chapter are the important chapters in this paper.To reduce precautionary motive and improve the consumption level of Shanghai urban residents’, the government can the following three aspects:Firstly, perfect the income distribution system. Only by improving the per capita disposable income can we increase consumption level. Secondly, complete the reform as soon as possible and perfect social security system to reduce the consumption expenditure uncertainty. Thirdly, optimize consumer structure further to promote consumption growth and improve consumption rate of Shanghai urban residents.更多还原