【作者】 王娇；

【导师】 张军；

【作者基本信息】 辽宁工程技术大学 ， 摄影测量与遥感， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 本文以三峡水库区域为研究对象,按照现状数据获取—动态分析—驱动机制探讨—变化趋势预测方法研究的路线展开理论应用研究与分析。采用面向对象影像分类方法获取土地利用现状数据,通过对比研究,揭示该方法能够克服传统分类方法的不足,提高数据获取精度。通过区域生长和均值漂移分割算法的对比研究,表明运用均值漂移分割方法对研究区域影像进行分割的效果更好。运用土地利用时空变化分析模型,从数量、速率、转移方向和区域差异四个方面对研究区域土地利用时空变化展开深入的分析,研究显示研究区域在2000-2004年间水域和城乡工矿居住用地在数量和速率变化均较大,距离三峡大坝较近乡县的土地利用类型区域差异大都比较显著。针对土地利用驱动机制定量分析中样本点少、样本间常常具有多重相关性等问题,采用偏最小二乘回归模型进行分析,通过对比研究,揭示了该方法比普通最小二乘回归具有更好地驱动力解释能力。采用马尔科夫预测模型对研究区域的土地利用变化趋势进行预测分析,结果表明研究区域水域和城乡工矿居住用地在短期内呈现逐渐增加趋势,林地、草地和耕地表现出逐渐减少的趋势,而未利用地的变化趋势为先逐渐增加后又逐渐减少。更多还原

【Abstract】 The paper takes the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as research object, does theory application research and analysis according to the flow which is the status quo data acquisition - the analysis of the change characteristic - the discussion about driven mechanism - the study of the trend forecasting method.Land use status quo data is obtained by object-oriented algorithm, which could overcome the defect of traditional algorithm and improve the precision of data acquisition. The region grow algorithm is compared with mean shift algorithm. The result indicates that the classification result is better by segmenting image of research area using mean shift algorithm.The land use time-space change of research area is analyzed from number, speed, transfer direction and regional difference by using land use time-space analysis model, which indicates that the study region change of the land for water use and inhabitancy is bigger than other land type in 2000-2004, and the regional difference of land use is remarkable for the towns that shorter distance to the Three Gorges Dam.Aim at that there are less sample and the serious relevance often is found between the sample, the partial least squares regression model is introduced, result shows that the method of the partial least squares regression could interpret the drive of the land use better than ordinary least squares by contrast .The Markov forecasting model is utilized to analyze the land use change trend of research area, the result indicates that the land for water use and inhabitancy is increasing gradually in a short time, forest land, grassland and cultivated land show a decreasing trend year by year, the change trend of unused land is increasing gradually firstly and then reducing gradually.更多还原