【作者】 宋祯；

【导师】 王拉娣；

【作者基本信息】 山西财经大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【副题名】以房地产板块为例

【摘要】 股票价格的变动受众多因素的影响,尤其是房地产股价的变动,研究这些因素与股价变动的关系有助于投资者理性认识股市。本研究是国家自然科学基金1(编号:70573066)资助的一部分,本文将股票价格的主要影响因素分为宏观经济与微观业绩两个方面,采用协整的方法对宏观经济与房地产股指之间的关系进行了实证研究,并以新浪财经房地产板块60家上市公司为例,对公司业绩与房地产股指进行了回归分析。总结全文工作,主要有以下三个方面:1.提出了宏观经济与公司业绩是影响股票价格的主要因素在对股票价格形成理论进行分析的基础上,提出在股票价格的众多影响因素中,宏观经济与公司业绩是影响股价的两个主要方面,并具体分析了这些因素如何影响股票价格的变动。2.对宏观经济与房地产股指之间的关系进行了实证研究以房地产板块为例,本文选取了9个宏观经济变量,应用协整的分析方法,对2001年1月到2008年3月宏观经济变量与房地产股指之间的关系进行实证,得出房地产股指与其中7个宏观经济变量之间存在协整的关系。3.对公司业绩与房地产股指之间的关系进行了实证研究以新浪财经房地产板块60家上市公司为样本,采用2001年第一季度到2008年第一季度的13个业绩指标数据与房地产股指进行回归分析,并将数据分为两组进行了对比分析。得出,与房地产股指关系较密切的业绩指标有每股收益和总资产增长率。最后,比较分析了宏观经济和公司业绩对房地产股指的影响,得出目前股票价格受宏观经济影响大于受公司业绩影响的结论。本文结论为房地产投资者理性分析板块走势、调整公司经营目标以及政府制定房地产政策提供了一定的参考和借鉴。更多还原

【Abstract】 There are many factors influencing stock prices, especially the real estate stock prices, studying these influencing factors can help investors know the stock market rationally. The research of this dissertation is the part of the projects2 supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.70573066). The paper studies the influencing factors of stock prices from macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects, and takes 60 real estate listed companies as sample from financial sina to make the empirical analysis on the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the real estate stock indexes, the micro-company performance variables and the real estate stock indexes. The paper uses co-integration analysis and regression analysis to study the movement of stock prices. The main contents of the dissertation are as follows:1. Putting forward the main influencing factors are macroeconomic factors and micro-company performance onesThrough analyzing the price forming theory of stock, the paper points out that the macroeconomic and micro-company performance are the main factors among many influencing ones, and studies these variables how to influence the stock prices.2. Making an empirical analysis on the relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the real estate stock pricesThe paper studies the relationship between real estate stock prices and 9 macroeconomic variables from 2001.1 to 2008.3 through co-integration analysis, and gets the conclusion that there are co-integration relationship between the real estate stock prices and 7 macroeconomic variables.3. Making an empirical analysis on the relationship between the company performance variables and the real estate stock pricesSelecting 13 companies’performance variables of the real estate listed companies (60 companies) as sample from financial sina, the paper makes regression analysis on the performance variables and the real estate stock prices. The data is divided into two groups, and studied comparatively. The conclusion shows: two performance variables (the total assets growth radio and earnings per share) and real estate stock prices have a close relation. Finally, the paper compares the influence degree on real estate stock prices between macroeconomic variables and companies’performance variables, and gets the result: At present, the influence on stock prices from macroeconomic is deeper than from companies’performance.The conclusions of the paper can help the real estate investors analyze and forecast the stock prices trend, help the real estate companies adjust operation targets, and provide basis for government’s real estate policies making.更多还原