【作者】 李婷；

【导师】 付强；

【作者基本信息】 东北农业大学 ， 农业水土工程， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 我国是一个旱灾频发的国家,随着人口的增长,经济社会的快速发展,以及水环境压力的加大,干旱缺水危机正日益成为我国最严重、最难解决的安全问题之一。我国总用水量的70%以上为农业用水,主要用于灌溉,灌溉用水占整个农业用水的90%以上。黑龙江是农业大省,农业是其重要的经济基础。其中西部地区是我省重要的种植区之一,但同时也是地表水资源量分布最少的区域,为全省旱灾发生最频繁的地区,干旱缺水已成为本区经济发展的制约性因素之一。解决西部地区旱情,提高抗旱减灾能力的研究对于缓解本区水资源的供需矛盾,提高粮食综合生产能力,建设国家重点商品粮基地,促进社会主义新农村建设,提高农民收入水平等,均具有十分重要的作用和深远意义。本研究分析了我国干旱缺水的态势及成因,并以黑龙江省西部地区的旱情为例进行了分析。建立了区域性旱情评价的宏观模型和微观模型,并据此给出了相应的抗旱减灾的决策模型。主要进行了以下工作:1.建立了区域旱情评价的宏观模型和微观模型,分别对区域的旱情进行综合的评价和对区域内某一行业(主要指农业)的旱情进行评价(包括对主要农作物在不同生育阶段和全生育期的旱情进行评价),为旱情评价方法提供理论依据。2.以黑龙江省西部地区2002年旱情为例,运用旱情评价模型对其进行微观评价,并将结果与距平分析法求解结果进行比较。然后,以2004年的相关资料为依据,通过对典型干旱年的旱情比较,对其缺水量进行估算。3.首先建立区域内水资源优化分配模型,按动态规划问题进行求解;然后建立区域内水资源在不同农作物间和农作物不同生育阶段的灌溉用水量优化分配模型,利用敏感性系数建立水分生产函数模型。结果表明,应用优化分配模型确定灌溉用水量比西部地区实际灌溉用水量节约22.4%,提高了水分利用效率,为西部地区进行抗旱预案的制定提供了科学依据。4.应用模糊控制方法进一步确定农作物生育阶段某一时刻的灌溉水量。水资源优化分配模型解决了农作物在某一生育阶段所需灌溉水总量的问题,模糊控制原理解决在确定的某一时刻进行灌溉时所需水量多少的问题。结果表明,将原本独立应用的优化分配模型和模糊控制方法有机的结合,可以更加有效的发挥两种模型的作用,更合理的分配灌溉用水量,达到节水抗旱的效果,为节水抗旱提供了新的思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 China is a drought-prone countries, with population growth, rapid economic and social development, as well as the water environment of increased stress, drought and water shortage crisis in our country is increasingly becoming the most serious, the most difficult one to solve the security problem. China’s total water consumption of more than 70% of water for agriculture, mainly for irrigation, water for irrigation agriculture as a whole accounted for more than 90% of water. Heilongjiang is a major agricultural province, agriculture is an important economic base. The western region is one of the important plant areas in our province, but also the distribution of surface water resources of the region at least, for the most frequent drought in the province areas, drought and water shortage has become the area’s economic development one of the factors constraining . To solve the drought in the western region, enhance research capacity and drought mitigation in this area for the mitigation of the imbalance between supply and demand of water resources, improve the comprehensive grain production capacity, the state’s key commodity grain base construction, promote the building of new socialist rural areas, improve the income level of farmers, are very important the role and far-reaching significance.This study analyzes the trend of drought and water shortage and the causes of the problem and to the west of Heilongjiang Province as an example an analysis of the drought. Set up a regional drought in the evaluation of the macro model and micro model, and thus give the corresponding decision-making model for drought mitigation. The main job for the following:1. Set up a regional drought in the evaluation of the macro model and micro model, respectively, of the region to carry out a comprehensive assessment of the drought and the region of an industry (mainly agriculture) to evaluate the drought (including the main crops at different growth stages and the whole reproductive evaluation of the drought period), for drought and provide a theoretical basis for evaluation.2. To the western region of Heilongjiang Province in 2002 as an example drought, drought assessment of the use of its macro-model evaluation, and analysis of the results of and departures from the results of a comparative method. Then, in 2004 as the basis of relevant information, through years of drought in arid typical comparison, estimate the volume of its water shortage.3. First of all, set up regional distribution of water resources optimization model, based on dynamic programming to solve the problem; then set up the region of water resources between different crops at different growth stages and crop irrigation water distribution model to optimize the use of the sensitivity coefficient to establish water production function model. The results showed that the application of optimized irrigation water distribution model to determine the actual than the western region 22.4 percent of irrigation water conservation, improved water use efficiency, drought resistance for the western areas of the development plan to provide a scientific basis.4. Application of fuzzy control method to further determine the reproductive stage of crop irrigation water in a moment. The results showed that the application of the original independent optimization distribution model and the fuzzy control method of the combination of organic, you can play more effective role of the two models, a more reasonable distribution of irrigation water to water-saving effects of drought, in order to provide water conservation and drought a new way of thinking.更多还原