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房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献度研究
Investment in Real Estate Development on the GDP Contribution of the Research
【作者】 丁胜兵;
【导师】 兰峰;
【作者基本信息】 西安建筑科技大学 , 技术经济及管理, 2009, 硕士
【副题名】以西安市为例
【摘要】 房地产开发投资通过投资和消费两环节拉动GDP增长,同时,在这两环节中,房地产开发投资通过前向、后向、环向带动作用及投资本身的直接作用促进GDP增长,充分发挥投资乘数效应。除具有经济效益外,房地产开发投资还具有巨大的社会效益,比如:提升城市形象;为人们生产生活提供场所等。鉴于房地产业巨大的双重效益,其发展已经得到了各级政府和社会各界的关注。保持房地产业与国民经济的协调发展,已经成为政府社会管理和经济管理职能的核心任务之一。因此,研究房地产开发投资对GDP的关系问题具有重大意义。准确把握房地产开发投资与GDP是否具有因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度等问题有利于准确及时调控房地产市场,以保证房地产开发投资与GDP均保持健康发展。房地产开发投资作为房地产业发展的基础和关键环节,在房地产发展中是最为关键的因素。本文首先用定性分析的方法,分析了房地产开发投资的主要影响因素,从宏观因素、区域因素两个大的方面着手,然后再细分,全面、深入的阐述了这些因素是如何影响房地产开发投资的。其次分析了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响,分别从促进作用和阻碍作用两方面阐述了房地产开发投资对GDP的影响。无论是促进作用还是阻碍作用,都有通过对相关产业的影响来实现,因此,还单独阐述了房地产开发投资对相关产业的影响。再次用实证分析的方法揭示房地产开发投资与GDP增长的因果关系、房地产开发投资对GDP的贡献及贡献度。最后,针对本文的研究内容,给出了研究结论、相关的政策建议,以便政府对房地产业的发展予以指导,保持房地产业和国民经济的协调发展。
【Abstract】 Investment in real estate development through investment and consumption aspects of driving GDP growth, at the same time, in these two segments, the investment in real estate development prior to the adoption, to the ring to the leading role and investment in itself a direct role in the promotion of GDP growth, investment and give full play to multiplier effect.In addition to economic benefits, investment in real estate development also has enormous social benefits, such as: to enhance the city image; for people to provide a forum such as the production and living. Given the huge double-effectiveness of the real estate industry, its development has been at all levels of government and the community’s concern. To maintain the real estate industry and the coordinated development of the national economy has become the government’s social management and economic management functions of the core tasks.Thus, investment in real estate development on the relationship between GDP of great significance. Accurately grasp the real estate development, investment and whether a causal relationship between GDP, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution of the issues is conducive to accurate and timely real estate market regulation to ensure that investment in real estate development and maintains the healthy development of GDP.Investment in real estate development real estate development as the basis and key link in the real estate development is the most crucial factor. In this paper, using qualitative analysis methods, analysis of investment in real estate development in Xi’an of the main factors, from macroeconomic factors, regional factors of the two major aspects, and then broken down, comprehensive, in-depth exposition of how these factors impact on the Housing investment in real estate development. Second, investment in real estate development analysis of the impact on GDP, respectively, from the promotion of the role and hinder the role of both the investment in real estate development on the impact on GDP. Whether the role is to promote or hinder the role, both through the impact on related industries to achieve, therefore, also described a separate investment in real estate development impact on related industries. Again using the method of empirical analysis reveals the real estate development investment and the causal relationship between GDP growth, investment in real estate development and contribution to the GDP contribution. Finally, the research for this article, given the conclusion of the study, the relevant policy recommendations for the Government to guide the development of the real estate industry, and maintain real estate and the coordinated development of national economy.
【Key words】 Investment in real estate development; GDP; cointegration theory; Granger causality test; contribution;