西安市住房消费需求分析与预测

【作者】 郝丹；

【导师】 杨小卿；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 西方经济学， 2009， 硕士

【摘要】 中国的住宅产业已经成为国民经济的重要支柱产业,住宅市场也已经成为最受人注目的市场之一。经过二十几年的发展,住宅产业的增长速度由注重速度规模转向注重效益,从依靠政府政策调节向以市场为导向转变。西安市是我国西部大发展的前沿城市之一,其住宅市场运行平稳,价格上升速度不快,成交量稳步增大,随着经济的持续高速增长,居民收入不断提高,大规模的城市建设,产生了大量的住房需求,但潜在的住房供需矛盾也正在凸现,主要表现为供给的剩余和巨大需求并存的现象。本文从需求的角度对西安市的住宅市场进行研究,首先对住房消费理论以及国内外对住房消费的研究进行综述,从西安市居民住房消费需求现状出发,对西安市住房消费需求进行实证分析,在此基础上分析了影响西安市住房消费需求的因素,根据主要影响因素历年数据,运用多元线性回归模型以及多元非线性回归模型,借助SPSS软件,对未来五年西安市住房消费需求量进行预测。以期加强对住房市场的认识,为市场参与者与管理者提供定量化的决策依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The housing market in Chinese has become an important pillar industry in national economy. After ten years’ fully development, the growth of housing industry has shift from focus on the speed to the benefits, shift form depending on the government policy to the market-oriented.Xi’an is one of the forefront city in China, its housing market running Smooth, Price increases in a slowly speed, With sustained economic growth, people’s income Constantly improve, The large-scale city’s construction, introduce many housing needs, However, the potential contradiction between supply and demand of housing is also being highlighted, the mainly reappearance is that there are huge supply but also huge demand.This article needs to study the housing market in Xi’an from demand. There are five parts in this paper, At first, give the general theory of housing consumption and housing consumption at home and abroad , and then do some research on the present situation of housing consumption demand, some empirical analysis. On this basic, analyze the mainly factors which impact the demand of housing in Xi’an. According to the historical data of the main factors, with the help of SPSS software, predict the consumer demand for housing in the next five years in Xi’an. To supply some help to strengthen awareness of the housing market, provide quantitative basis for decision making更多还原