【作者】 胡国桥；

【导师】 刘贵文；

【作者基本信息】 重庆大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【副题名】基于重庆轨道交通的实证分析

【摘要】 随着我国城市化水平和机动化水平的不断提高,交通逐渐成为约束城市发展的瓶颈,于是大力发展公共交通尤其是运量大、速度快的城市轨道交通系统为形势所需。城市轨道交通在带来交通便利的同时,产生了巨大的外部经济效益,明显地改善周边物业的可达性和居民出行的便捷性,改变土地利用性质,提高土地开发强度,促进社会经济繁荣与发展,从而促进周边房地产价值的上涨。如何定性和定量分析城市轨道交通对周边房地产价值的影响,成为近年来学术界研究的热点。关于城市轨道交通对周边房地产价值的影响研究,主要分为三个方面:城市轨道交通对周边房地产价值影响的范围、城市轨道交通对周边房地产价值影响的时效性、城市轨道交通对周边房地产价值影响的定量分析。然而在不同的城市,由于其经济、城市规划及城市基础设施的完善程度存在一定的差别,所以轨道交通在不同城市的发展所带来的房地产增值效益是不一样的,不仅轨道交通站点的影响范围大小不一,且轨道交通对周边房地产价值影响的时效性及程度也有很大的区别。轨道交通对房地产价值影响的定性、定量研究成为各个城市政府、房地产市场管理部门、轨道交通建设公司、房地产开发商急切解决的问题。鉴于此,论文收集整理了大量国内外研究文献,通过分析重庆轨道交通二号线对沿线房地产价值的影响研究,在于发现重庆轨道交通各站点的影响范围,揭示重庆轨道交通对沿线房地产价值影响的时效性,建立轨道交通对房地产价值影响的定量研究模型,以便于更好地实现轨道交通与周围房地产一体化开发,并为政府制定相关政策,轨道交通公司、房地产开发商采取各种措施提供计量的依据。重庆轨道交通二号线对周边房地产价值影响范围的研究结果表明:城市轨道交通对沿线房价变化的影响范围并不是单一的值,而是随着至市中心的可达性变化而变化的。一般而言,随着离城市中心轨道交通站点距离越远,轨道交通站点的影响范围呈递增的趋势。但并不是随着距市中心距离单调递增的,在交通成本变化的车站,影响范围也相应发生变化。重庆轨道交通二号线对周边房地产价值影响的时效性研究结果表明:在轨道交通动工后房价将会有一定的涨幅,到全面开动将会出现第一个涨幅的峰值点,随后会出现一定的回落,但仍保持着一定的水平,到轨道交通线开通后将会出现第二个涨幅的峰值点,且这个峰值点较第一个峰值点更大,随着轨道交通的试运营房价涨幅逐渐回落。关于重庆轨道交通二号线对周边房地产价值影响的定量分析表明:随着从样本楼盘地块中心到轨道交通站点距离的增大,轨道交通对房价的影响是呈递减的趋势;随着从地块最近的轨道交通站点到市中心距离的增大,轨道交通对房价的影响越发显著;距离区域中心越远,轨道交通对房价的影响是呈递增的趋势。通过对杨家坪轨道交通站对周边楼盘房地产增值的计算,发现重庆轨道交通二号线对沿线房地产价值的影响是非常巨大的,如果能将该部分楼盘售价增值按一定比例,如30%对开发利益进行还原,则城市轨道交通企业便可以从中获得上十亿元甚至上百亿元的收益,这将是城市轨道交通建设与运营的一项非常重要的资金来源。更多还原

【Abstract】 Along with the unceasing enhancement of our country’s urbanization level and motorization level, the transportation gradually becomes the bottleneck restraining the urban development, therefore it need to develop the public transportation powerfully, particularly the urban rail transit system which has mass transit and quick speed. The urban rail transit while brings the convenient communication, has the huge external economy benefit. It can obviously improve the accessibility of the neighbourhood property and convenience of the resident’s journey, changing the nature of land utilization, enhancing the intensity of land development, promoting the development of social economy. Thus it can promote the value of the neighbourhood real estate.How qualitatively and quantitatively analyse the impact of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value, it becomes the hot spot of the academic study in recent years. The studies about the impact of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value, mainly divide into three aspects: the impact scope of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value, the influence effectiveness of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value, the quantitative analysis about impact of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value.However, to different cities, as a result of its different economy, urban planning and city infrastructure, therefore the urban rail transit brings different increment benefit to the real estate in the different cities, not only the impact scope of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value, and the effectiveness and the degree about the impact of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value. The quantitative analysis about impact of urban rail transit to the neighbourhood real estate value becomes the anxiously soluting problem to each city government, the control section of real estate market, urban rail transit companies, and property developers. In view of this, this thesis collected and reorganized the massive domestic and foreign research literatures, through analysing the impact of Chongqing rail transit 2nd line to the real estate value along the route, to discover the impact scope of each Chongqing rail transit station, finding the effectiveness about the impact of Chongqing rail transit to the real estate value along the route, establishing the quantitative investigation model about the impact of urban rail transit to the real estate value, to advantageously realize the integration development of rail transit with the neighbourhood real estate, and providing the measurement basis for the government formulating the related policy, for the urban rail transit companies and the property developers taking each measure. So the research significance is richer.The study about the impact scope of Chongqing rail transit 2nd line to the neighbourhood real estate value indicated that: The impact scope of urban rail transit to the real estate value along the route is not the sole value, but changing along with the accessibility to the city center. Generally speaking, the impact scope of urban rail transit to the real estate value assumes the increasing tendency along with the distance to the rail transit station in city center becoming more farther. But it is not monotonely increasing along with the distance to the rail transit station in city center, when the transportation cost changes, the impact scope also correspondingly change.The study of the effectiveness about the impact of Chongqing rail transit 2nd line to the real estate indicated that: After the rail transit beginning to construct, the house price will have certain increase scope, when the project comprehensively start it will present the peak point of the first increase scope, afterward it will present certain receding, but it still maintains certain level, after rail transit line communicating clear it will present another peak point of the second increase scope, and this peak point of the increase scope is bigger than that of the first peak point. The increase scope of house price will recede gradually along with the trial operation of the rail transit.The quantitative analysis about the impact of Chongqing rail transit 2nd line to the neighbourhood real estate value indicated that: Along with the distance from the sample land center to the rail transit station enlargeing, the impact of rail transit to the house price assumes decreasing tendency; Along with the distance from the neighbourhood rail transit of sample land to the city center enlargeing, the impact of rail transit to the house price is even more remarkable; as the distance from the neighbourhood rail transit of sample land to the region center enlargeing, the impact of rail transit to the house price assumes the increasing tendency.Through the calculation about the impact of the Yangjiaping rail transit station to the neighbourhood real estate value, it discovers that the impact of Chongqing rail transit 2nd line to the real estate value along the route is very huge, if can return the increased value according to the certain proportion, such as 30%, then the urban rail transit enterprises may obtain billions Yuan even tens of billions Yuan incomes, it will become one very important sources of fund to construct and operate the urban rail transit.更多还原