我国股份制商业银行IPO定价研究

【作者】 房芳；

【导师】 张旭；

【作者基本信息】 青岛大学 ， 金融学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着中国加入WTO,银行业改革步伐加快,众多股份制商业银行力图通过上市提高自身的核心竞争力,IPO(首次公开发行定价)是上市最关键的问题之一,其是否合理直接影响到银行的整体效率及国有股东的利益。本文首先对IPO定价的基本理论和国内外研究动态进行系统比较,采用宏观经济指标和8家商业银行的财务数据分析影响我国IPO定价的因素。其次,运用主成分分析法提取影响IPO定价的主要因素(即行业增长率,每股收益,余额存贷比率,净资产增长率及外资入股),借助多因素定价法得出IPO定价回归方程。最后,以该回归方程对两家商业银行IPO定价进行估值。研究表明,该回归方程拟合度良好,但中信银行和工商银行数据显示,其IPO存在抑价现象。研究认为,抑价产生的原因在于我国证券市场尚不完善,银行的管理及股权结构欠佳等。建议应完善证券市场,提高核心竞争力,改善投资者结构,积极应对外资入胶,逐步消除商业银行IPO中的抑价现象。更多还原

【Abstract】 As China entered WTO, the banking industry accelerates the pace of reform. Many shareholding commercial banks improved their core competition power by listing. IPO is one of the key points of listed company. Whether the IPO is reasonable or not influences whole efficiency of banks and profits of domestic shareholders directly.At the beginning, this paper analyses the related domestic and abroad research and IPO theories systematically. Also, this paper analyses the factors that influence IPO by using macroscopic economic index and financial data of eight commercial banks. Then, the paper draws the main factors that influence IPO by using the method of Principal component analysis. The main factors are as follows: Industry growth rate, earnings per share, the balance of loan-to-deposit ratio, the net assets of growth and foreign investment shares. This paper gets pricing regression equation by drawing assistance from multi-factors pricing method. At last, this paper takes Citic bank and Industry and Commercial Bank of China as example and according to the research, the equation is well but it reflects IPO is under-pricing. The research reflects that the reasons of under-pricing are imperfective security market and the poor management and ownership structure of banking industry. The paper suggests that we should gradually eliminate IPO under-pricing phenomenon of banks by improving the securities market, enhancing core competitiveness, improving the structure and responding the foreign capital positively.更多还原