【作者】 罗志高；

【导师】 刘新建；

【作者基本信息】 燕山大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 由于在过去几十年的发展期间过分强调经济效益,我国出现了许多区域发展问题,地区内经济中部门价格的合理性也是其中的一个问题,某些部门的价格与本地区经济的发展不协调,呈现不合理性,因此对区域经济中的价格的合理性进行分析是非常有必要的。投入产出技术作为一种经济数量分析方法,自产生以来已在经济领域的各个方面取得了广泛的应用,本文使用投入产出方法对价格合理性问题进行了研究。本文首先对投入产出分析相关理论进行了介绍,包括投入产出表的介绍,投入产出行模型、投入产出列模型、投入产出行模型与列模型的关系介绍,对非线性投入产出模型、价格理论、区域经济模型的理论发展进行了综述,为后文研究工作的开展做了准备。其次,我们讨论了直接消耗系数的主要修订方法,包括专家调查法、RAS法、各种主要元素修订法、马尔科夫链法等,并在传统RAS法的基础上首次提出了两阶段RAS法。然后,我们建立了一类非线性投入产出模型,重点考虑了部门产品合理价格问题。根据河北省2005年投入产出延长表和《河北经济统计年鉴》(2001-2005)相关数据,利用模型计算出河北省国民经济十部门产品的合理价格水平。通过对房地产业进行了分析,得出河北省房地产业2005年并不存在泡沫现象,房地产实际总体价格略微偏低,应该上调13%左右的结论。文章最后利用计算结果对十部门中的房地产业进行了分析研究,指出了河北省房地产业总体不存在泡沫现象。更多还原

【Abstract】 It experienced a number of regional development issues in our country because in the past several decades we emphasis on economic benefits, the reasonableness of the price in the economic sector of region is one of the issues. The price of certain sectors in the region is not accord with the economic development, so the analysis of the reasonableness of the price in the regional economy is very necessary. Using mathematic model to do research on economic problems both on theory and reality becomes the key indicator of economic developing to modern science. Wide application of input-output technology in economic field since it has been generated as it is a kind of number economic analysis method. In this paper, reasonable price issues have been studied by the input and output method.We introduce Input-output analysis related theories firstly in this paper, and describe the theory of the Non-linear input-output model, the price theory and the theory of regional economic model in summary.Secondly, we discuss the major revision method of direct consumption coefficient, including expert survey, RAS method, major elements reversion method, Markov method, ect. And developed the two steps RAS method based on the traditional RAS method.Then, we pay more attention on doing research on reasonable price using Non-linear input-output model. We calculated the reasonable prices of the ten sectors products according the data from Input-output extension table of Hebei province in 2005 and Hebei Economic Statistics Yearbook (2001-2005) by the model. There was no real estate bubble in Hebei Province in 2005 according to the analysis of the real estate industry. The real estate prices is actually slightly lower, should rise about 13% .We use the calculated results to do the analysis on real estate industry of the ten departments products in the last of the paper, and indicate that there is no bubble phenomenon in real estate industry of Hebei province.更多还原