【作者】 王勤鹏；

【导师】 王旭；

【作者基本信息】 沈阳航空工业学院 ， 安全技术及工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 在影响火力发电厂并网运行安全生产的诸多因素中,相关电气一次、二次设备的安全运行对保证火力发电厂并网安全运行起到重要作用,这些设备一般都是潜在危险性大、专业性强的设备。在传统的管理模式下,设备投产初期和设计阶段失效概率较高,在运行阶段失效概率较低。定期对设备进行风险评价,可以及时地发现设备运行中存在的缺陷,采取控制措施,这样可以使设备的失效概率在整个生命周期内是平稳变化的,增加设备的使用寿命。本文提出一种适合这些设备的简单、方便、经济、有效的风险评价方法——模糊概率风险评价法,并建立了模糊概率风险评价法的数学模型和流程,该方法是针对这些设备的事故特性提出的,是以概率风险评价方法为基础,综合运用故障类型与严重度分析(FMEA)、故障树分析(FTA)等方法,对这些设备进行风险评价,该方法可及时发现这些设备存在的安全隐患,确定其危险程度,指导设备安全管理和检修维修工作。分析了影响火力发电厂并网运行关键设备事故发生概率的不确定性,引入了模糊数学的基本理论,提出用模糊数表示事件的发生概率,以减小获取基本事件发生概率精确值的难度,并对其隶属函数进行了研究,使结果描述相对趋于科学、准确。第四章对火力发电厂并网运行相关设备的模糊概率风险评价方法进行了应用。并在第五章针对火力发电厂并网失败可能带来的损失,引入收入损失保险机制,它是发电厂规避市场风险、减少经济损失的途径之一,也为保险公司的业务创新带来了新的机遇。更多还原

【Abstract】 Among so many factors of affecting operating safely in shunted (incorporated) thermal power plant, the operating safely of related electrical equipments which possess characristicof high potential hazard and professional is vital. In the mode of traditional management, the failure probability of these equipments is high during early stage after putting into production and the design life-span, but low in the run stage. Making report about risk assessment for these equipments period is helpful to find out potential hazards during total life cycle, so that related professionals can take measures to solve problems in accordance with it as well as prolong the service time of the equipments.Fuzzy Probabilistic Risk Assessment, which is a simple, economic and effective risk assessment method, is established, besides the math model of this method. This method, based on fault characteristic of the dangerous equipment and Probabilistic Risk Assessment, applies so many diverse methods such as FMEA, FTA and so on to find out the potential hazards timely determine the degree of risk, so that we can use it to guide safety management and Equipment maintenance.The probability of uncertainty about key equipment in thermal power plants is analyzed, and also introduces the basic theory of fuzzy math. Fuzzy number, provided to express the probabilities of basic events, is helpful to reduce the difficulty in obtaining the precise numerical value. The research on ensuring subjection function is useful to describe the results more scientific and accurate relatively.This method is validated in the fourth part. Furthermore, loss of income insurance which is introduced to avoid market risks and compensate for economic losses innovates new opportunity to insurance company.更多还原