【作者】 孟祥磊；

【导师】 赵新华；

【作者基本信息】 天津大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 地面沉降是天津市主要的地质灾害,这种复杂的环境地质问题严重影响着城市基础设施建设,制约着天津市的经济发展。目前已普遍证实过量开采地下水造成地下水文地质力学平衡的破坏是导致地面沉降最主要的原因。因此,研究并建立适合该地区的沉降预测方法,为下一步天津市地面沉降的有效控制提供科学依据将具有积极而深远的意义。首先,本研究选取历史观测数据较为完备的研究区作为研究示范区域,在优化了地面监测点的基础上,利用灰色关联理论对各个含水组与地面沉降系数进行了计算,然后通过肯达尔非参数秩次相关检验法对各个含水组的关联系数进行分析。其次,以地下各含水组年均水位为输入变量,以优化后监测网络的各监测点年沉降值为输出变量,建立了地面沉降预测BP神经网络模型,并在此基础上,利用规则化调整和初期中止的方法对模型的泛化能力进行改进,此外还建立了径向基神经网络模型。通过三个模型的对比,筛选出了适合该地区的地面沉降预测模型。最后,详细地阐述了如何利用ArcGIS设计和建立相关数据库和编制数据底图,如何利用空间分析功能对地下水等值线、地面沉降等值线等进行分析。并提出利用COM组件技术将Matlab与ArcGIS进行无缝结合,为ArcGIS与其它软件进行通信提供了一种思路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Ground subsidence is one of the major geological disasters of Tianjin. This complex environmental geological problem seriously affects the construction of urban infrastructure facilities, so that restricts Tianjin’s economic development. It has been widely confirmed that the major course of ground subsidence is the break of geohydrological mechanical equilibrium caused by excessive exploitation of groundwater. Therefore, it is important to establish a set of method to predict the ground subsidence in Tianjin. Thus it can offer scientific basis for effective control of ground subsidence.Firstly, Tanggu District is selected as a model regional in this research, which has complete historical data. Based on optimized ground monitoring points, related analysis of gray system is employed to calculated each aquiferous group and the coefficient of ground subsidence. Kendall examination method is employed to analyze the coefficient of each aquiferous group.Secondly, with input variables of average underground water levels and optimized values of ground subsidence monitoring points to be output variables, a BP neural network model for prediction of ground subsidence is established. On this basis, regularization and early stop methods are used to improve the generalization of this model. Besides, a RBF neural network model is established. With compares between these 3 models, a best model for prediction of ground water in this region is selected.Finally, how to use ArcGIS to design and established the data base and data base map is described in detail, as well as how to use spatial analysis to analyze groundwater contour and ground subsidence. Moreover, a method for seamless integration for Matlab and ArcGIS is developed, which is based on COM technology. It explores a new method for communication between ArcGIS and other software.更多还原