【作者】 李建科；

【导师】 王式功； 贺皓；

【作者基本信息】 兰州大学 ， 应用气象学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 随着社会经济的快速发展,公路交通在国民经济建设中的作用越来越重要,因此,气象条件对公路交通的影响也越来越被重视,认为气象条件是影响公路交通安全运行的最主要自然因素,因此,开展陕西省公路气象条件分析及预报系统的研发有着非常重要的现实意义。本文研究资料选取陕西省主要代表城市2002-2004年日交通事故资料及其对应时段的气象资料,同时选取了陕西省81个县站1961-2006年月雾日数资料、月降雪日数资料、1961-2005年逐日四时次能见度资料、陕西省18个县站1961年至2002年年积雪深度≥1厘米日数等资料,分析了陕西公路交通事故时空分布,利用主成分分析、多元线性回归等方法建立陕西公路交通安全指数预报方程,利用Mann-Kendal统计检验法、趋势系数等方法系统分析了对陕西公路交通安全运营影响最大大雾及积雪的气候变化趋势。主要研究结果如下:1、陕西大雾及浓雾年日数分布呈现“三高三低”的形式,浓雾日数分布形势与年雾日数分布基本一致,但高值范围明显缩小,秋、冬季是陕西省大雾及浓雾的高发期;陕西大部分地区40多年的年雾日数呈减少趋势,对于各季而言,除了春季大雾日数减少趋势较为明显外,其余各季均不明显,浓雾的减少趋势不如大雾显著;20世纪80年代中后期年雾日数具有非常明显的突变点;年雾日数与年平均气温的变化呈较明显的负相关关系,而与年平均相对湿度的变化呈明显的正相关关系。2、陕西省年平均降雪日数分布具有山区多、平原少、中西部地区多、南部少的特点,全省绝大部分地区年降雪日数、年积雪日数为负的趋势,且负趋势非常显著;上世纪60年代到70年代中期末,年降雪日数是增加的,70年代中后期到90年代中期年降雪日数总体呈上升趋势,从90年代中后期到2006年年降雪日数是明显减少,20世纪80年代中期为非常明显的突变点。降雪日数减少的原因,一是气候变暖,原本是以降雪形式出现的降水有一部分转化成降雨形式,使得降雪日数减少,另一方面降水量总体减少,特别是冬季降水量的减少。3、交通事故的发生与一定气象条件是有密切关系的,雨、雪、雾是影响公路交通安全的主要不利气象条件;在一个地区中,当出现的不利气象条件是在该地区出现概率最小时,在该不利气象条件下发生交通事故的概率是最大的;各种不利气象因子对交通事故的影响大小和利用气象因子建立公路交通气象安全指数的预报方程在陕西各个地区,冬半年、夏半年是不同的。4、在Windows操作系统环境下,用VB6.0与SQL Server为开发工具,利用ADO动态数据连接引擎实现数据通信,利用MapObjeats二次开发组件技术,采用嵌入式集成方式开发了陕西省公路交通气象服务系统。该系统操作简便,结果客观定量,预报产品服务效果良好,在陕西公路交通气象服务中发挥重大作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Function of highway traffic is more and more important in national economic construction along with socio-economic development quickly, Therefore, the impact of weather on the highway traffic is increasingly concerned. It has been considered that weather conditions is the mainest natural factor affecting the driving security, so it is of great practical significance to analyze the Shaanxi Provincial Highway weather conditions and develop the forecasting system.In this thesis it is used that traffic information and meteorological data of the main representative cities during its corresponding periods in Shaanxi Province from 2002 to2004, the monthly days of fog and snow during 1961-2006, visibility data from 1961 to2005, data of snow depth> 1 cm daily statistics from 1961 to 2002 . In this paper we analyze weather conditions that impacts highway traffic of Shaanxi Province by the Mann-Kendal statistical test, the trend coefficient, principal component analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis methods. There are four research results as follows:First is that the distribution of dense fog days and fog days present the pattern with "three highs and three lows". The distributed trend of dense fog days is the same as the fog trend, but the high value scopes reduce obviously. In fall and winter there is a high incidence of fog even dense fog in Shaanxi. The fog days decreased in the past more than 40 years in the most areas in Shaanxi, especially in spring. There is a clearly sudden change point of fog days in the middle and latter half of the 1980s. The fog days was found a negative correlation with the average temperature change, and a positive correlation with the average relative humidity change.Secondly, the distribution of the average snowy days in Shaanxi appears characteristics of mountains more, plains less, and central and western regions more, southern Shaanxi less. The snowy days show a clearly negative trend in the majority area of Shaanxi. It increases from 1961 to the middle and latter half of the 1970s, fluctuates from the middle and latter half of the 1970s to the middle of the 1990s, and obviously decreases from the middle and latter half of the 1990s to 2006. There is a sudden change point in the middle of the 1980s. Two reasons make the snowy days less; one is that some of snow becoming rain makes the snowy days less because of climate warming,, the other is the precipitation totally reduces, especially in the winter.Thirdly, the occurrence of the accident is closely related to a certain weather conditions, such as rain, snow and fog which are the main adverse weather conditions to traffic safe. The probability of accidents is the largest in the adverse weather conditions which probability is the smallest in the region. The impact of various adverse meteorological factors on accidents is different in various regions of Shaanxi in winter or summer.Finally, we developed Highway weather service system in Shaanxi, based on SQL Servers2000, VB6.0, and MapObjects. The system has a friendly interface, and good service evaluation.更多还原