【作者】 吕玉洁；

【导师】 黄强； 王义民；

【作者基本信息】 西安理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 如何改变现行设计过于保守的汛限水位,是实现洪水资源化的一个有效途径,也是当前的一个研究热点,但目前的研究对象多为一个水库,本文结合汉江上游石泉、喜河梯级水库,首先进行了洪水规律分析,在此基础上,对梯级水库的主汛期分期进行了研究,并计算不同分期的汛限水位,进而进行基于汛期分期汛限水位的梯级水库洪水联合调度研究,根据洪水调节结果和水库电站的设计资料确定梯级水库分期汛限水位较合理的组合。论文的主要研究成果如下:(1)采用O.618法划分洪水洪峰流量量级,对石泉、喜河水库实测的入库洪水资料进行概率分析,确定各量级洪水的月、旬分布规律和年可能发生次数及相应的概率,为水库主汛期分期和各分期汛限水位的确定提供理论依据;(2)确定了石泉、喜河水库在主汛期的分期及相应时段。根据水库主汛期每年第一场洪水发生时间和最后一场洪水结束时间的概率分布,采用模糊统计分析理论,对梯级水库的主汛期进行分期,得出各分期时段;由梯级水库特性资料,拟合水库的汛期隶属度函数,计算主汛期各分期时段的汛限水位,然后采用“跨期选样法”修正梯级水库的分期汛限水位;(3)对石泉水库的防洪能力进行复核。石泉水库的特性资料由于受库容淤积等因素的影响发生了一定的改变,结合水库的设计洪水资料和现有的运行方式,采用新的特性资料对水库的防洪、蓄泄能力进行了复核,结果表明,淤积不影响水库的防洪安全。(4)采用洪水地区组成原理,确定了梯级水库汛期分期下的汛限水位合理组合方式。根据水库各分期汛限水位和梯级水库设计洪水的两种洪水频率组合对梯级水库不同分期的汛限水位组合进行了调节运算,按照水库运行兼顾兴利较大和风险较小的原则,确定梯级水库联合运行较合理的汛限水位组合;同时可以发现,梯级水库联合运行存在风险传递特性。(5)建立梯级水库防洪库容最小模型,采用逐步优化算法(POA)和逐次逼近动态规划(DPSA),根据梯级水库分期汛限水位计算结果,进行梯级水库的联合优化调度研究,为更好的进行梯级水库联合运行提供理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 An effective way to realize floodwater utilization is to change the conservative design limited water level, on which a research focuses redently. But now only single reservoir was studied. The Shiquan, Xihe reservoir on upstream of Hanjiang were researched in this paper. Firstly the flood law was analyzed, the flood season staging was put forward, and the corresponding food control level was computed. Then the joint operation of flood of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were studied, and the reasonable combination of flood season staging of cascade reservoirs were given. Then main contributions were as follows:(1) The Golden-section algorithm was used to compartmentalize the peak discharge, the inflow flood data of Shiquan, Xihe reservoir were analyzed by the probability statistic theory, the corresponding probability of flood distribution law of month, ten days and the times of annual probable were computed. All the results provided certain theoretical basis for the flood seasons division and the computation of each stage limited water level.(2) The main flood season of Shiquan, Xihe reservoirs were divided and the corresponding periods were got. According to the probability distribution of the occurring time of the first flood and the ending time of the final flood from July to September, the Fuzzy Statistic Analysis was used to divide the main flood season of cascade reservoirs, and the each stage period was got.By fitting the flood season membership functions according to the each stage period and the characteristic data of cascade reservoirs, the limited water level of each stage period were computed, and the flood seasons partition scheme was used to correct the each stage period limited water level.(3) The flood control capacity of Shiquan reservoir was checked. The characteristic data of Shiquan reservoir has changed which influenced by some factors as reservoir sedimentation. Combining the design flood data and the actual operation rules, the flood control capacity and the storage-outflow capacity of Shiquan reservoir were checked by adopting the new characteristic data. The results shows that the flood control safety was not influenced by reservoir sedimentation(4) By the flood region composition theory, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward. According to each stage limited water level and the two flood frequency combination of cascade reservoirs, the different combination of limited water level of cascade reservoirs were calculated. In terms of the benefit maximization and risk minimum principle, the reasonable combination of limited water level under cascade reservoirs was put forward, and the risk transfer characteristics of cascade reservoirs operation could be found.(5) The flood control capacity maximization model was established, POA and DPSA arithmetic were applied to study the flood joint optimal operation of cascade reservoirs, which would provide some theoretical basis for the joint operation of cascade reservoirs.更多还原