【作者】 陈希；

【导师】 王笑京；

【作者基本信息】 交通部公路科学研究院 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 可变情报板是交通诱导系统中的主要发布手段之一,通过文字、图形或者图文结合的方式,将交通、道路、天气等各类信息实时地发布给出行途中的驾驶员,从而引导驾驶员路径选择。本世纪初,很多国家都开始使用新型路网可变情报板。而这种新生事物所产生的影响,尤其对出行路径选择的影响,值得探索和研究的。本文从显示技术、信息内容和信息形式三个角度,对新型路网可变情报板进行定义,并介绍了日本、韩国、德国、荷兰和中国等应用现状。在出行路径选择理论总结的基础上,运用行为学、心理学、系统动力学等相关知识,分析了新型路网可变情报板对出行路径选择的影响。经过研究方法和研究模型的描述和比选后,进行了实例分析。(1)通过有序多分类Logistic模型的构造,对驾驶员对新型路网可变情报板的偏好习惯与出行路径选择之间的关系进行研究:1)对信息留意程度高、信任度高、遇红改变路径、遇黄改变路径的驾驶员,根据信息改变路径的频繁程度通常较高;2)随着驾龄的增加,驾驶员根据信息改变路径的频繁程度反而降低。(2)通过多重线性回归模型的构造,对新型路网可变情报板的信息内容对出行路径选择的影响进行研究:1)当目的地相邻时,替换路径交通状况越好,转移率越高;前方路段和途经路段的交通状况越好,转移率就越低:2)当目的地不相邻时,替换路径交通状况越好,转移率越高;前方路段和高等级路段的交通状况越差,转移率就越高;目的地离出发地距离越远,转移率就越高。(3)总结了北京市新型路网可变情报板的应用现状,并提出了相应的建议:1)超过80%的驾驶员认为其对出行有帮助;2)约20%的驾驶员认为其能缓解拥堵带来的紧张情绪;3)只有3%的驾驶员在高速行驶中无法看清信息内容;4)73%的驾驶员对信息基本信任;5)超过60%的驾驶员对黄色信息不信任:6)有56.94%的驾驶员支持将黄色信息隐含的速度范围调至20-35公里/时的建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Variable Message Signs is one of the main means of distribution in Traffic Guidance Systems. It can provide en-route drivers with the information about traffic, road and weather, which can guide them of the path chosen. The beginning of the 21 century, the New Road Network Variable Message Signs appeared on the main road network in many countries. The impact of the new thing, especially on route choice, is worthy to explore and research.Firstly, the thesis defines the New Road Network Variable Message Signs based on the display technology, information content and form, and introduces the application in Japan, Korea, Germany, Holand and China. Secondly, in summing up Route Choice Theory, the thesis analyzes the New Road Network Variable Message Signs’ impact on route choice, based on the use of behavioural science, psychology and system dynamics. Thirdly, after the description and contrast of the research means and research model, the thesis makes case analysis.(1) Building a multi-category ordinal logistic model researches the relationship between drivers’ stated preference to the New Road Network Variable Message Signs and route choice: 1) those who highly trust, frequently concern and so on will change the route frequently according to the information; 2) with the increase of driving age, the frequency of changing the path will reduce.(2) Building two multiple linear regression models research the different information content’s impact on route choice: 1) while the destinations are adjacent, if the traffic state of replaced link is better, the percent of changing path will be higher; if the traffic state of frontage link and via link is worse, the percent will be higher; 2) while the destinations are not adjacent, if the traffic state of replaced link is better, the percent of changing path will be higher; if the traffic state of frontage link and high-rank link is worse, the percent will be higher; if the destination is farther away from the origin, the percent will be higher.3) Review the application of the New Road Network Variable Message Signs in Beijing, and present some suggestion: 1) more than 80% drivers think it is useful for their travel; 2) about 20% drivers think it can ease the tension caused by traffic jams; 3) only 3% drivers are unable to see the information at the high speed; 4) 73% drivers trust basically the information; 5) over 60% drivers don’t trust the yellow; 6) suggest that the range of the speed of the yellow is adjusted to 20-35km/h, approved by 56.94% drivers.更多还原