客户生命周期价值的理论和实证研究

【作者】 赵舒婧；

【导师】 王贻志；

【作者基本信息】 上海社会科学院 ， 数量经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 如果时间倒流20年,那么这篇文章可能会被嗤之以鼻,因为在那个物资供给并不丰裕的年代,整个中国市场就像一片等待开垦的处女地,往往新客户的主动投怀送抱就已经让供给者们赚得盆满钵满。即使在竞争相对激烈的纺织行业,获取新客户的成本也要远远低于如今。当时的供给者们可能更多的想的是如何大块朵颐地开发新客户、如何占领市场份额,而不是花代价留住客户。但是时间能够倒流吗?不能。所以我们必须面对现在这个群雄争霸、优胜劣汰的残酷竞争市场,在限定的条件下最优化客户管理,最大化客户价值。客户价值是企业价值的源泉和关键衡量指标,而从客户关系管理(CRM)的角度看,客户价值主要源于新客户的获取和老客户的保持。对于那些老客户,应该保持哪些人以及如何保留住他们,这是客户价值最大化过程中我们最关心的问题。本文沿着客户保持这条主线展开,完善了客户生命周期价值的概念架构,并将客户生命周期价值解释为客户需求潜力和客户忠诚度的函数,进而构建了基于历史面板数据的客户潜在价值模型。随后,在理论研究的基础上,结合国内某保险公司电话销售中心续保记录数据,对其客户潜在价值做了实证应用,并基于此给出了相应的营销策略建议。事实证明,在适当的客户保持策略作用下,续保成功率和客户价值都分别得到了一定程度的提升。在文章最末的“展望”中,笔者提出了关于“最优化”和“边界约束”的观点,指出“边界约束”即使没有比“最优化”更重要,至少也一样重要,应得到企业的一致重视。更多还原

【Abstract】 If we turned the clock back 20 years, this paper might be nothing. Because in those years characterized by insufficient supply when the whole market in China was just like a virgin land waiting for exploration, a great initiative demand from the new customers was enough to stick to the suppliers’rib. Even in the relatively competitive textile industry, the acquisition cost of new customers is far more moderate. The suppliers could pay more attention to new markets and market share, rather than spend in customer retention. Then, could time flow backwards? Of course not. So, enterprises are forced to face up to the extremely competitive market today, and make effort to optimize customer management and maximize customer value.Customer value, as a source and a key measurement of the corporate value, comes mainly from customer acquisition and customer retention under the angle of CRM. What we most concern in the course of customer value maximization is who should be retained and how to hold them. Along the main line of customer retention, this paper perfects the conceptual framework of Customer Lifetime Value (CLV), which is explained with two factors, Customer Demand Potential and Customer Loyalty. Furthermore, a Customer Potential Value (CPV) model is built based on panel data. After the theoretical study, this paper analyzes a real-world case of customer potential value assessment with the use of renewal data from the call center of a certain securities company, and some marketing strategy suggestions are derived from the data mining results. It is proved that both the renewal rate and customer value are upgraded in some degree with the aid of appropriate customer retention strategy.The“Expectation”in the last part of the paper addresses a further view of“optimization”and“constraint”that even if“constraint”is not more important than“optimization”, it should have the same importance and be treated equally without discrimination.更多还原