【作者】 刘淡宁；

【导师】 叶蜀君；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 区域经济学， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 创业投资是投资人将资金投入到有巨大增长潜力的中小企业的一种权益投资。创业投资最大的特点在于其高收益性和高风险性。由于高风险的存在,使得创业投资项目的评价更需要注重科学性和客观性。虽然国内对创业投资项目评价的研究也引用了一些数学模型,比如模糊综合法,但在该模型的应用中,还存在一些缺陷,包括指标的选择和指标权重的分配,另一个不足之处就是隶属度函数的确定还不够科学,不能很好的反应客观事实。本文采用模糊综合法对创业投资项目进行评价,将以上提到的几个缺陷作为研究出发点,并重点对隶属度函数的确定方法做了改进,从而达到完善模型的目的。论文通过对现有几种确定隶属度函数的方法进行研究,发现这些方法均存在一定缺陷,故提出用统计学方法确定隶属度函数。本文认为不同行业、不同指标的隶属度函数是不一样的,而且会受宏观经济的影响,要确定受评价创业项目的隶属度函数,必须依赖于当前该项目所处行业的总体情况,因此,传统的确定隶属函数方法如Zadeh公式不能很好的反应现实情况。本文以受评价项目所处行业上市公司的财务指标作为统计样本,将统计样本的均值看作区间内隶属度为0.5的特殊点,模拟出每项指标在不同区间上的隶属度函数,并将结果与利用Zadeh公式计算出来的隶属度函数对比,通过对比可以看出本论文模拟出的函数更与客观事实相符。更多还原

【Abstract】 Venture Capital is an equity investment, the investment objectives are Small-Medium-Size Enterprise with huge growth potential. The most obvious character of Venture Capital is high risk and high return, so the evaluation of Venture Capital project needs more scientificalness.Nowadays China’s researches on evaluation of Venture Capital project cite many mathematical models, such as Fuzzy Comprehensive Method. But the application of models still has defects, include the choice of indication and the distribution of weight, another defect is the establishment of Membership Function. In this paper, Fuzzy Comprehensive Method is used to evaluate Venture Capital project, and the three defects are regarded as the starting point for research. The emphasis of this paper is improving Membership Function that can make this model better.After researching some establishments of Membership Function, this paper suggest establish Membership Function by Statistics. Because Membership Functions in different industry are unalike, and they also influence by macroeconomic, so the establishment of Membership Functions must depend on the industry development. This paper use financial indicators of listed companies as statistical samples, and find out Membership Function in different interval. Then, establish another Membership Function by Zadeh Formula. After contrasting these two function, we can find the first one reflect the fact better.更多还原