三峡船闸过闸需求预测及提高过闸能力对策研究

【作者】 刘远平；

【导师】 许茂增； 梁雄耀；

【作者基本信息】 重庆交通大学 ， 交通运输工程， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 长江航运在重庆市国民经济发展、对外贸易、促进经济可持续发展等方面具有极其重要和不可替代的作用。三峡大坝修筑后,显著改善了长江上游的航运条件,水路运输成本显著下降,增加了水路运输同其他运输方式的竞争能力,极大地促进了重庆航运业的发展。根据三峡工程建设进度安排,三峡船闸2006年10月起将进行为期一年的建设期。按照设计施工方案,施工期间三峡船闸将单线运行,船闸通过能力大幅下降,碍断航问题将对重庆市的经济建设造成重大影响。据测算,在为期一年多的改建施工期间,船闸通过能力将只有正常情况的40%左右,届时船闸实际通过能力将远远小于实际过闸需求,翻坝分流在所难免。本文从社会损失最小的角度出发,对三峡大坝对重庆市货运的影响进行分析,首先对过闸的客货情况进行统计,找出问题所在,并经过查找对重庆市统计年鉴,预测出重庆市未来几年的过闸需求量,并根据预测值,结合相关政策,对提高过闸能力提出一系列方法和模型。本文研究的主要问题为:过闸现状;过闸货物分类;过闸船舶分类;船闸通过能力与船舶过闸时间参数;船舶过闸编组作业优化模型;船闸通过能力不足对策。通过研究得出测算出:船舶过闸能力、实际过闸船舶和客货运量、船舶过闸等待时间和损失估计,并提出:船舶过闸编组作业优化模型、翻坝运输方案、改善运输的其他措施等解决方案。更多还原

【Abstract】 The Yangtze River Shipping is playing an extremely important and irreplaceable role in development of the national economy, foreign trade, the promotion of sustainable economic development in Chongqing Municipality. After the construction of the Three Gorges Dam, it significantly improved the shipping conditions of the upper Yangtze River, significantly dropped the waterway transportation costs, increased the competitiveness between waterway transportation and other transportation modes, and will greatly promote the development of the shipping industry in Chongqing.According to the Three Gorges project construction schedule, the Three Gorges Ship-lock has being constructed in October 2006 for the period of one year. In accordance with the design and construction plan, the Three Gorges Ship-lock will be one-way operation in the construction period, which made a great drop of lock capacity. The navigation obstruction problem will significantly impact on the economy of Chongqing Municipality. It was estimated that in the one year of the construction duration, the lockage capacity is only about 40 percent of common situation. The lockage capacity will far behind the demand at that time, it is necessary to rebuild the dam to distribute the stream.This paper seeking the optimization for reservoir area shipping distribution during the Permanent Ship-lock of the Three Gorges Project conduction from the smallest social losses, lowing the degree which the ship lock reconstruction has onto the Chongqing shipping and industry development of west part of china to the minimum and prevent the social problems simultaneously.The main contents of this paper are as follows: lockage situation; lockage cargo classification; lockage ship classification; Ship-lock capacity and time parameters; optimization model of Ship-lock marshalling operation; countermeasures of Ship-lock capacity deficiency. Pass the textual research work, and have to out below research conclusion: lockage capacity; the actual lockage ships; the actual passenger and freight volume; ship lock waiting time and loss assessment. Then put forward: optimization model of ship lock marshalling operation; transportation scheme and other measures to improve the transportation.更多还原