【作者】 罗智宁；

【导师】 许洪国；

【作者基本信息】 吉林大学 ， 交通环境与安全技术， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 汽车与摩托车碰撞事故是道路交通事故的一种重要形式。由于摩托车骑乘人员身体直接暴露在外,没有车身保护,一旦发生事故,人员死伤率极高。摩托车事故研究是道路交通事故研究的一个分支。在汽车与摩托车碰撞事故中,汽车车速估计是正确判定事故责任,解决事故纠纷的关键之一。目前,对于此类事故的一般处理方法都有其局限性,如质点平抛运动学模型精度不高、车速估计范围过大;轮胎路面印迹的信息随着汽车技术的进步而不易获取等。对于未留轮胎制动印迹的汽车与摩托车碰撞事故,尚缺少准确、有效的处理方法,是事故车速鉴定中的难点问题。在国内外现有研究成果的基础上,本文研究了汽车与摩托车碰撞事故汽车车速估计方法。以事故案例数据为基础,利用摩托车和骑乘人员的划痕印迹、两者的抛距以及计算机模拟软件PC-Crash仿真数据分别建立了估计碰撞车速的模型。针对运用多个模型估计车速时估计值不同的情况,通过加权的方式将各类模型集成为一个综合模型,并探讨了各子模型的权值问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 Automobile-motorcycle accident is an important form in traffic accidents. It often causes heavy casualties and great losses of property, because the bikers are always in a vulnerable position. In developed countries, motorcycle-accident accounting for less 5% proportion causes casualties accounting for 30% - 40% in all traffic accidents. In developing countries, due to the characteristics of fast, flexible, lightweight and cheaper prices, motorcycles have become the preferred transport tools in some social strata. The resulting traffic accidents have increased dramatically. The statistics in 2006 show that 100036 motorcycle-accidents occurred, 25128 persons were killed, 152966 persons were injured and 113.3 million RMB lost in these accidents all over the country. They respectively account for 26.41% of gross of traffic accidents, 28.09% of gross of deaths, 35.48% of gross of injured persons and 7.61% of gross of property lost.Motorcycle has lower safety performance than other vehicles. Because of its small size, fast speed, difficult to identify and poor driving stability, motorcycle is easier to take place accident than cars. Because the body of bikers has no protection, the rate of casualties is very high if any accident has happened. Determining the crash speed of vehicle is not only one of the main tasks of Traffic Accident Reconstruction, but also the premise and basis of determining responsibility.Based on the research of practical problems encountered, status quo and demand in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle crash, and the results of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University, this paper mainly accomplished the work below:The characteristics and causes leading to a vehicle-motorcycle crash accident are analyzed in this paper. Ten causes and three characteristics, including high rate of accidents, injuries and handling difficult, are got. Then the paper introduces the main types of motorcycle accidents, as well as the influences of the vehicle shape on motorcycle accident. Finally the paper investigates the main methods at home and overseas in vehicular velocity estimation of vehicle-motorcycle accident, and analyzes their limitations. Vehicular velocity estimation models with high accuracy and practicality are established based on the real accident data, which is the goal of this paper. These accident data are obtained from some complete cases of vehicle-traffic safety lab in Jilin University since 2000.Some models are established about the relation of road surface slide mark–collision speed and throwing distance–collision speed of biker or motorcycle in this paper. And this paper deduces a relatively complete physical theoretical formula, which makes up the shortcomings of lower accuracy and oversize speed estimate scope in particle kinematics model. Then the actual accident data are used to fit the parameters in the simplified formula. Finally some practical models are got. Coefficient of sample determination and the discrete level of scatter regression curve are used to validate the accuracy and precision of those models. Dummy collision test ground of vehicle-motorcycle is simulated by PC-Crash. Compared with the overseas test data and models, the paper verified the validity and accuracy of the simulation model.Owing to using different vehicular velocity estimation models have different estimate values, the paper applied those models into an integrated model, and studied the weight of each sub-model. Two typical accident cases are reconstructed with the models which are founded in this paper.Although the models are based on the data of low angle between motorcycle and automobile, they are also the same with the situation that motorcycle or biker is thrown out in motorcycle accidents. The research will improve the study on vehicular velocity estimation in vehicle-motorcycle crash. It also has some practical significance on road traffic accidents.更多还原