【作者】 田英；

【导师】 江林；

【作者基本信息】 中国人民大学 ， 市场营销管理， 2008， 硕士

【摘要】 消费者预期构成消费者制定和实施消费决策的先决条件,是消费者行为的基础性环节。随着消费者在市场运行中居于支配性的主导地位,影响消费者行为的预期也日益成为影响经济运行的重要因素。因此,无论宏观层面的政府决策,亦或微观层面的企业运营,都必须对消费者预期予以高度重视和深入研究。目前,与我国高投资率相对的是最终消费率连年下滑,这将不利于我国经济持续稳定地发展。过去几年间,虽然我国政府采取了积极的财政政策和货币政策以刺激消费、扩大内需,各个企业也为了自身的生存和发展而积极配合,但居民在社会、经济、生活等多方面的悲观预期,抵消了国家宏观经济政策的效应,使得国内消费“启而不动”。为减少消费者预期对社会经济运行的负面影响,应当对其进行深入、系统的研究。近两年,国内经济运行的新态势及国家出台的经济政策无疑会影响消费者对未来社会、经济、生活的估计和判断,从而使不同时间维度下的消费者预期有所不同,应当对其进行研究以掌握消费者预期的状态及发展趋势。另外,消费意愿也会影响到整个国民经济的运行和社会发展,研究消费者预期如何影响消费意愿,尤其是在考虑时间维度的情况下进行研究,将会为政府社会管理政策及企业生产经营策略提供理论依据,并据此提高决策制定的准确性。由文献分析可知,学术界关于消费者预期的研究成果还是比较少的,甚至还有不一致的地方。虽然经济学家将预期划分为短期预期和长期预期,但长期以来忽视对短期预期的研究,也少有研究者基于时间维度对消费者预期进行进一步的探索。另外,虽有研究者认为预期对消费意愿有影响作用,但尚未对该影响作用展开定量研究。在此背景下,通过对基于时间维度的消费者预期、消费意愿及其二者之间关系的探索,本研究明确了不同时间维度下的消费者预期与消费意愿之间的关系,并提出了以实证分析为基础的研究结论,这将有利于其他学者以此为基础,探索建立消费者预期的整体分析框架。而且,研究所采用的方法对政府和企业展开消费者预期和消费意愿方面的调研具有借鉴意义,研究结论也将为政府和企业制定长短期的决策提供理论依据,从而提高决策制定的准确性。本研究主要是在研究方法、结论及角度等方面进行了创新。首先,建立消费意愿的综合测量维度。通过文献分析可知,消费意愿作为影响消费决策的心理变量,至今未有学者对其进行系统的、专门的研究。在考虑中国人民银行调查全国城镇储户方法的基础上,研究又加入了消费档次、消费类别、消费时间几个维度,从而形成了消费意愿的综合测量维度。其次,明确消费者长期预期与短期预期之间的关系。至今,关于消费者长期与短期预期的研究成果还是比较少的,研究得出结论,一方面,基于时间维度的消费者预期有明显的线性变化,另一方面,消费者长期预期与短期预期在某些方面是存在显著差异的。最后,明确不同时间维度下的消费者预期对消费意愿的影响作用。通过文献分析发现,还没有学者对消费者预期如何影响消费意愿进行定量研究。在成对样本T检验分析的基础上,研究明确了长期预期与短期预期之间的线性相关及差异性关系,并在考虑时间维度的情况下证实了消费者预期对消费意愿的影响。在研究方法及研究角度创新的基础上,通过对有一定经济基础及消费能力的消费者进行调研,并根据研究目的及研究假设,采用SPSS13.0统计分析软件对调研数据进行因子分析、信度分析、成对样本T检验以及回归分析,研究得出以下主要结论:第一,消费者长期预期与短期预期的构成维度存在差异。消费者短期预期包含个人生活与收入短期预期、宏观经济形势短期预期、物价走势短期预期、突发事件预防短期预期和政府政策短期预期五个维度。消费者长期预期由宏观经济形势长期预期、个人生活与收入长期预期、物价走势长期预期以及个人支出长期预期四个维度构成。另外,个人生活与收入、宏观经济形势、物价走势短期预期与长期预期包含的内容也是存在差异的。第二,在消费者的短期预期中个人生活与收入预期的解释力好于宏观经济形势预期,而在长期预期中这一关系正好相反。第三,基于时间维度的消费者预期有明显的线性变化,收入增长、物价上涨、物价涨速、物价平稳、意外情况的短期预期及长期预期存在显著差异。第四,个人生活与收入短期预期、物价走势短期预期和宏观经济形势短期预期对消费者消费总量方面的意愿有影响,其中个人生活与收入短期预期的影响作用较其他两方面的预期更强;个人生活与收入短期预期、物价走势短期预期对消费者高档品消费意愿有影响作用,并且个人生活与收入短期预期对高档品消费意愿的影响要大于物价走势短期预期。第五,个人生活与收入长期预期、物价走势长期预期对消费者的消费总量方面的意愿有影响作用,且个人生活与收入长期预期对消费总量意愿的影响比物价走势长期预期要大。第六,消费者短期预期和长期预期都对消费者消费总量方面的意愿有影响作用,但消费者短期预期与消费总量的向后筛选回归分析模型能更好地表示短期预期各变量对消费总量方面意愿的影响作用。第七,不能通过回归分析证明消费者短期预期对消费者的中档品消费意愿、低档品消费意愿及消费时间方面的意愿有影响作用,另外,也不能通过回归分析证明消费者长期预期对高、中、低档产品的消费意愿及消费时间方面的意愿有影响作用。基于时间维度的消费者预期和消费意愿会通过影响消费者消费决策及行为而影响宏观经济运行,从研究结论出发,政府部门应当采取如下措施:加强对消费者长、短期预期的调研,并将其作为制定政策的依据;多种途径改善消费者的悲观预期以提升消费意愿;根据消费者预期状况及发展趋势掌握好制定和推行消费政策的时机、力度和步骤。另外,企业也应当加强对消费者预期的研究,尤其要在研究中把握好时间因素;根据消费者预期研究的结果调整营销策略;引导消费者对企业所经营的商品价格的预期。本研究虽然取得了一定的成果,但仍存在分析方法、抽样等方面的不足。需要注意的是,消费者预期是影响宏观经济运行和微观消费的重要心理变量,对其进行进一步地研究将会有重要的理论意义与实践价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Consumer expectation determines consuming decisions made and executed by consumers, and it’s a basic part of consumer behavior. As consumers becoming the dominating factor of market operation, consumer expectation impacts the economic operation greatly also. In consequence, not only in the macro aspects but also in the micro aspects, government and enterprises should pay more attention to the study of consumer expectation.Nowadays, contrary to the high investing rate, the consumption rate decreased year by year, which will undermine on our country’s continuous and stable development. During the past several years, although our government applied optimistic financial and monetary policies to incentive consumption and enhance domestic demand, and enterprises coordinated with government actively for their own survivals and development also, the pessimistic expectation of residents of social, eocomic and living counteracted the effects of macro economic government policies and made it was hard to incentive the domestic demand. In order to damp down the negative effects of consumer expectation of the social development, it is necessary to research on it deeply and systematically. These two years, the new inclination of our country’s economic development and newly applied economic polices will affect consumer estimation and judgment in the aspects of society, economic and living, in the meantime, consumer expectation of different time limit will be alien to each other, so it is worthy to study consumer expectation to grasp its feature and tendency. Otherwise, consuming intention can impact the development of the economic and the society too. Figuring out how consumer expectation affect consuming intention, especially when considering time limit, will offer reference for government policies and enterprises operation strategies, and improve the accuracy of them.It appeared that conclusions about consumer expectation were not rich, and some of them were different from each other. Although economists had divided expectation into short-term expectation and long-term expectation, research on short-term expectation was neglected for long, and there were few researchers probed consumer expectation forward on the basis of time limit. Furthermore, in spite of some researchers admitted that consumer expectation affected consuming intention; they hadn’t carried out further research with assays.Under these circumstances, on the basis of research on the consumer expectation based on time limit, consuming intention and relationship between them, this rasearch figured out the relationship between consumer expectation based on time limit and consuming intention, and brought forward conclusions with questionnaire analysis, which would help other researchers build up an overall analysis frame of consumer expectation. Otherwise, the way used in this research might be reference for other research on consumer expectation and consuming intention carried out by government and enterprises, and the conclusions would offer theory basis for long-term and short-term decisions of government and enterprises, which would improve the accuracy of these decisions.It was innovated in the aspects of research method, conclusions and research angle mainly.Firstly, it was theorized a synthetic measuring frame of consuming intention. With analysis of former materials, it was found out that, as a psychological variable which could affect consuming decision, consuming intention hadn’t got systematic and particular research. With reference to research method of People’s Bank of China, it was added aspects of consuming clarification, consuming categories and consuming time to carry out comprehensive research on consuming intention.Secondly, it was clarified the relationship between long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation. Thus far, conclusions about long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation aren’t so much; it was concluded that, on the one hand, consumer expectation based on time limit changed significantly, on the other hand, long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation were different from each other greatly in some aspects.Thirdly, it was made out the effects of consumer expectation based on time limit on consuming intention. There were no researchers investigated how consumer expectation affected consuming intention with assays. This research clarified the correlation and difference between long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation on the basis of Paired-Sample T Test, and studied the effects of consumer expectation on consuming intention by considering time limit.By innovating in the aspects of research angle and research method, this research investigated consumers who had income, and analyzed investigation datum with Factor Analysis, Reliability Analysis, Paired-Samples T Test and Regression of SPSS13.0.Finally, it was concluded that:1. The frame of long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation are different. Short-term consumer expectation is constituted of personal life and income expectation, macro-economic situation expectation, price developing situation expectation, emergency precaution expectation and government policies expectation; however, long-term consumer expectation is constituted of macro-economic situation expectation, personal life and income expectation, price developing situation expectation and personal expenditure expectation. Otherwise, the contents of personal life and income expectation, macro-economic situation expectation and price developing situation expectation related to long-term consumer expectation and short-term consumer expectation are different.2. The personal life and income expectation is the most important factor of short-term consumer expectation; however, macro-economic situation expectation is the most important factor of long-term consumer expectation.3. Consumer expectation has significant linear change on the basis of time limit. In the meantime, long-term and short-term consumer expectation about income growth, price growth, price growth speed, steady price and emergency precaution appears to be different notably.4. Short-term consumer expectation of personal life and income, price developing situation and macro-economic situation affects consuming intention in the aspects of total expenditure, and the effect of personal life and income expectation is stronger than the other two factors. Otherwise, short-term consumer expectation of personal life and income and price developing situation has an effect on consuming intention in the aspects of up-market consumption, and personal life and income short-term expectation has a stronger effect on the intention of up-market consumption than short-term expectation of price developing situation.5. Long-term consumer expectation of personal life and income, and price developing situation affects consuming intention in the aspects of total expenditure, and the effect of personal life and income expectation is stronger than price developing situation expectation.6. Although short-term and long-term consumer expectation impact consuming intention in the aspects of total expenditure, backward regression analysis model of short-term consumer expectation and consuming intention of total expenditure can clarify the relationship between these variables better.7. it’s impossible to verify that short-term consumer expectation can impact consuming intention in the aspects of the midrange and low-grade consumption, and consumption time with regression of SPSS13.0. Also, the analysis of regression can’t figure out whether long-term consumer expectation can have an effect on the consuming intention of different clarification and consumption time.The consumer expectation based on time limit and consuming intention studied will have an effect on the development of macro-economic through consumer decisions and behavior. On the basis of forgoing conclusions, it was brought forward following advices for government: build up research on long-term consumer expectation, and enact policies with its outcome; improve pessimistic consumer expectation to advance consuming intention by different kind of ways; control time limit, extent and the progress of consumption policies made and executed with the help of the investigation outcome about consumer expectation. Furthermore, it was suggested that enterprises should stress the study of consumer, pay enough attention to time limit, coordinate marketing strategies by considering the outcome of consumer expectation research, and guide the consumer expectation of price of particular goods.While this research got some conclusions, there were still shortages in the aspects of research scale and sample. It is necessary to notice that consumer expectation is an important psychological variable which can affect macro-economic development and micro-consumption, and it is worthy to carry out further research on it to get more theoretical and practical values.更多还原