【作者】 徐丽丽；

【导师】 邵春福；

【作者基本信息】 北京交通大学 ， 交通运输规划与管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 近年来,机动车保有量大幅度增加,其增长速度远远大于道路改扩建的速度,经济快速发展激励生成的交通需求远远大于已有道路资源的供给能力。然而,道路资源是有限的,而且在近期内也不可能无限度地增扩,如何在现有的道路资源基础上,通过寻求交通组织优化理论与方法,最大限度提升现有道路资源供给能力,同时引导或者改变交通需求,从而使得交通供需趋于平衡,是近年来交通领域研究热点之一。本论文从消费者行为学理论中的消费购买决策过程角度,分析了出行者的交通行为过程,研究了目前在理论和应用层面比较成熟完善的Logit模型,分别推导选择概率对于选择方案属性和决策者特性两种变量的导数和弹性计算公式,从而得出了交通组织优化的理论依据。在模型的参数标定过程中,分别对两种不同变量进行了参数估计,完善了已有的参数估计方法。最后进行案例分析,采用Logit模型对交通信息对驾驶人的路径选择影响调查数据建模并对参数进行标定,根据模型标定结果,预测了北京市道路网络中增设VMS后道路交通组织运行效率优化情况并进行了实证研究,结果表明路网负荷度变化比例与预测值相差在5个百分点以内。对比Logit模型与其他模型的预测结果则是下一步需要继续深入研究的内容。更多还原

【Abstract】 The number of vehicles is increasing sharply in recent years, while the road network’s improvement is far behind the rate of vehicle increase. Travel demand stimulated by the economic development has now exceeded the traffic supply capacity. It has been known that traffic capacity is limited and it could not be improved without any restriction in a short time, a common solution approach to improve the traffic supply capacity is optimization of traffic operation and management in the existing road network; simultaneously, inducing or changing travelers’ traffic demand, therefore the balance between the supply and demand can be achieved.In this paper, travelers’ behavior is analyzed using the theory of consumer purchase-making decision process, and then the disaggregate Logit model is studied which is both developed in theory and application. Finally the theory foundation is achieved by derivatives and elasticities of choice probabilities with respect to attributes of alternatives and characteristics of decision maker. Parameters of these two variables are calibrated respectively, which improves the previous research in terms of parameter calibration method.In the case study, the Logit model is adopted to calibrate traffic information effect on travelers’ route choice behavior, and then the traffic operation optimization is predicted and demonstrated after setting up more Variable Message Signs (VMS) in Beijing road network according to the Logit model. The results show that there is a 5 Percentage Point Change between prediction and demonstration in the road network’s Percentage Change for rate of volume to capacity. Compare Logit model with other models in prediction results aspects should be explored in future research.更多还原