【作者】 宋霞；

【导师】 赵慧芬；

【作者基本信息】 河南农业大学 ， 农业经济管理， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 2004年1月-3月,国内多个省份暴发的高致病性禽流感疫情,突显出了我国现行动物防疫体系的弊端。建设新的动物疫病防疫体系已经变得十分迫切。河南省是我国主要的畜禽产品生产、消费和贸易基地,畜禽养殖业的持续稳定发展对全省乃至全国都具有重大的现实意义,畜禽疫病控制问题成为制约畜禽养殖业持续稳定发展的重要因素。本文主要采用问卷调查、数学分析相结合的方法对河南省畜禽养殖业进行疫病防控的影响因素进行深入的分析,给出了完善我省动物防疫体系的相关建议。本文研究思路:借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。按照上述思路,本文研究内容主要分为以下几个部分:第一部分是引言。阐述了本研究的选题背景和研究意义,并对国内外的相关领域的研究现状以及最新进展进行了简单的总结和回顾。第二部分是河南畜禽养殖业现状以及疫病风险控制现状分析。首先在调查问卷的基础上对河南省畜禽养殖业的发展情况和疫病发生控制情况做了简要的分析。第三部分畜禽是养殖业疫病风险控制影响因素(指标)识别及确定。借助于问卷调查和借鉴国内外畜禽疫病进行风险控制的经验上,结合风险分析的部分原理,建立了适用于河南省畜禽养业的风险控制影响指标;并运用一定的数学手段(主要是层次分析法-AHP),结合已经建立的风险控制影响指标,提出了适用于评估养殖业养殖风险的模糊综合评估模型;最后为了证明模型的实用性,运用实例对其进行了检验。第四部分是国内外畜禽疫病风险控制的经验借鉴。第五部分是在相关结论的基础上,从政府、规模养殖业和小型养殖户的角度给出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 An outbreak of HSN1 epidemic in some provinces from January to March 2004 shows the weaknesses of the current animal epidemic prevention and control system in China. It is therefore urgent to build an effective animal epidemic prevention and control system.Henan province is a major base of animal production, consumption and trade, where a sustained and stable development of livestock industry is of great practical significance for that of the province and even the whole country. Animal epidemic prevention and control is a key factor that affects sustained and stable development of the livestock industry.In this thesis, factors affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan Province are deeply analyzed by a method combined of a questionnaire survey and mathematical analysis and some advices and suggestions are made to improve the animal epidemic prevention and control systemStrategy in this thesis is followed. firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.According to the strategy, five parts are included in this thesis.In the first part, an introduction is given to simply review the background, significance and the latest domestic and foreign progress of the related fields of the research.In the second part, the current situation of the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province is analyzed. Problems of the system are found by the analysis the survey on the livestock industry and the animal epidemic prevention and control system in Henan province.In the third part, firstly, indexes affecting the animal epidemic prevention and control in Henan province are constructed by using the theory of risk analysis based on the survey and the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system. Then a fuzzy evaluation model of the risk of the livestock industry is proposed by using some mathematical methods mainly including the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on the above indexes. At last, real examples are used to prove the practicality of the model.In the fourth part, the experience of the domestic and foreign animal epidemic prevention and control system is studied.In the last part, some suggestions and advices in policy are given for three perspectives of the government, aquaculture enterprises and farmers to improve the current animal epidemic prevention and control system.更多还原