【作者】 李占英；

【导师】 程春田；

【作者基本信息】 大连理工大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 径流系列作为水电系统的输入在水电站制定发电计划，做出水库运行决策的过程中起着极其重要的作用。较短的历史径流系列不能充分表示未来可能出现的各种来水状况，因此径流随机模拟作为一种以实测资料为基础充分考虑来水的随机特性的径流生成方法，越来越广泛的应用于水资源评价、制定水库调度曲线、确定各种水利参数和对未来径流量做出预估等。对于梯级水电站水库群来说，随着系统规模的扩大，维数灾成为其优化调度的瓶颈，如何降维并且提高问题的求解效率一直是水库调度领域的重要课题。动态规划和逐步优化算法作为目前最为常用的求解梯级水电站水库群的优化调度问题的方法各自存在自己的优点和不足。本文以贵州省乌江流域梯级水电站水库群的资料为背景，通过建立混合模型对乌江流域6个梯级混联水库的月径流过程进行了模拟，综合考虑实测资料和模拟序列采用逐步优化算法与动态规划算法相结合的方法对乌江流域梯级水电站水库群的中长期优化调度方式进行了探讨。具体工作如下：1．联合使用自回归滑动平均模型和相关解集模型对乌江流域6个主要电站的月径流过程进行了模拟，对模拟结果进行分析和检验的结果表明模型的实用性较好。2．使用状态逐密的逐步优化算法与动态规划算法相结合，分别以最小出力最大，最小出力约束下的发电量最大、梯级蓄能最大为目标对乌江流域的实测入流序列和模拟序列进行了优化调度，分析了调度结果并研制了梯级水电站水库群的优化调度图。3．在梯级水电站水库群优化目标罩面引入了分时电价、电站电价因素，建立了效益发电量最大模型。结果表明电价系数的不同对于梯级水电站群的调度运行方式有明显的影响。最后对全文进行了总结，并提出了有待进一步研究的方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 As the input of the hydropower system, runoff is very important to make the generationplan and the optimal operation decision of the hydropower station. If the length of the runoffseries is not long enough, its Variety can not be describe clearly, so runoff stochasticgeneration which is a runoff generation method based on the real data and represents thestochastic characteristic of the runoff series can be widely used in the water resourceevaluation, making the operation chart of hydropower stations, selecting the reservoirparameter, forecasting the flow, and so on.By the extension of hydropower system, multidimention problem is the bottle-nec ofoptimal operation. The reduction of dimention numbers and the efficiency is a importantproblem of reservoir operation. Both Dynamic Programming (DP) and Progressive OptimalityAlgorithm (POA) are effective, but they also have the advantages and disadvantages. In thispaper, firstly a mixed stochastic model is proposed for the runoff simulation of the cascadedhydroelectric plant on Wujiang River, and then a optimized method combining DP and POAis used to do some research on the mid-long term optimized operation considering the realand simulative runoff series. The main works are listed as following:1. A mixed stochastic model of combining the auto-regressive moving average (ARMA)model and the disaggregation model is proposed for the runoff simulation of the cascadedhydroelectric plant on Wujiang River. The analysis and test of the simulative runoff series areestablished and the result shows that the parameters are reasonable and the mixed model issuitable for the stochastic generation of multi-station streamflow.2. An algorithm combining DP and Modified Adaptive POA is presented to the operationproblem of the hydropower systems of cascaded reservoir on Wujiang River, which takes themaximum energy, the maximum stored energy of the whole series with a minimum energyconstraint and the maximization of minimal mean power as the objective for every time stepseparately and takes the real and simulative runoff series into account. The results are used tomake the operation chart of the hydropower systems.3. Taking the TOU (Time-of-Use) price and the price difference of the hydropowerstations into account, a model which takes the maximum generation benefit as the objective ispresented. The results show that different coefficients of price will obviously affect thegeneration benefit and operation mode of cascade hydropower stations. Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.更多还原