【作者】 邴建平；

【导师】 钟平安；

【作者基本信息】 河海大学 ， 水文学及水资源， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 水资源问题是一个全球性问题，水资源的稀缺性、时空分布的不均衡性以及供求矛盾决定必须在水资源自然配置格局的基础上进行合理的人工配置。要从众多的水资源配置方案中，选择经济、社会和生态环境合理的配水方案，需要对各方案进行评价和分析。本文以此为题，对区域水资源配置方案评价进行了综合、系统的探究。本文在总结了国内外水资源配置及其配置方案评价的研究进展和研究中存在的问题的基础上，对区域水资源配置方案评价内容和方法进行了进一步研究。依据可持续发展理论，并考虑评价指标选取的基本原则，构建了涵盖社会经济合理性、生态环境合理性、资源合理性以及开发利用合理性四个评价准则的区域水资源配置方案评价多层次评价指标体系；并研究了评价指标筛选原则和定性与定量分析相结合的筛选方法。概述了区域水资源配置方案评价的多目标群决策原理，归纳分析了多种多目标综合评价方法后，重点研究了三种多目标多层次评价模型：基于最大熵原理的评价模型、模糊物元优化评价模型和基于灰色关联度法和理想解法组合评价模型，并且鉴于水资源配置的多人参与的群决策特点，着重研究了指标的群决策赋权法。由基于B／S模式的水资源配置情景共享模拟系统生成了多套配置方案，将水资源配置方案评价的多目标群决策理论和方法应用到配置方案评价中，优选出了济宁市2020规划水平年的推荐方案，从而验证了本文所研究的理论和方法的科学性及可行性。最后对济宁市2020年推荐配置方案进行了可持续发展评价，结果表明推荐方案实施后能保障社会经济的可持续发展，水资源与经济社会发展和生态环境保护能较好的相协调。更多还原

【Abstract】 The problem of water resources is a global problem, such as scarcity of water resources, unbanlance of timespace distributing, the contradiction between supply and requirement of water resources, so it is necessary for conducting water resouecs reasonable allocation based on the natural allocation of water resource. Choosing a reasonable allocation scheme including the aspects of economy, society and environment from numerous schemes, we need to carry on evaluation and analysis to every scheme.On the basis of summarizing the research progress of water resources reasonable allocation and schemes evaluation as well as problems in existence, the paper carrys on further research to the evaluation of regional water resources allocation schemes.The multi-layers evaluation index systems of regional water resources allocation shemes are established including four rules such as societyl and economy rationality, environment rationality, resources rationality, exploitation and using rationality by considering sustainable development and the principles of establishing evaluation index systems. Moreover, the sieving principles of evaluation indexes and the methods of combining qualitative and quantitative analysis are studied.The paper describes the multi-objective group decision-making theory of regional water resources allocation schemes evaluation. After concluding some multi-objective evaluation methods, three kinds of evaluation models with multi-objective group multi-layers are studied particularly including the evaluation model based on maximum entropy principle, fuzzy matter-element optimization model, the model based on gray relevant degree and TOPSIS. Furthermore, owing to the group decision-making characteristic with many people participation of water resources allocation, the methods for derivign experts’ weighting in group decision-making are studied particularly.Many water resources allocation schemes are obtained by making use of vision-shaved analysis system of water resources allocation based on B/S mode.Those theories and method studied in the paper are applied for the evaluation of water resources allocation schemes in JiNing city, and a reasonable recommending scheme of 2020 is selected, thus verified science and the possibility of those theories and method. Finally, the sustainable development evaluation of the recommending scheme is done,the result shows that the recommending scheme can ensure sustainable development of society and economy, and water resources can harmonize wih the development of society and economy, as well as the projection of environment preferably.更多还原