【作者】 王雅男；

【导师】 万方浩；

【作者基本信息】 中国农业科学院 ， 生物安全， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 对外来生物进行风险分析和建立预警机制是阻止外来生物入侵并发生危害的最经济有效的防止措施，风险评估是风险分析过程中关键的一环，为风险管理提供重要决策依据。为了便于风险评估的数据管理和避免评估者理解复杂的评估模型和进行大量的评估计算，本研究应用Visual Basic计算机语言和MapObjects地理信息系统二次开发组件开发了外来生物风险评估系统。外来生物风险评估系统主要应用气候相似性分析法、生物气候相似分析法和多指标综合分析法对任何外来物种进行全球适生性区域分析和入侵概率预测。气候相似性分析法遵循了气候相似原理，应用相似离度法找到与物种目前发生地气候最相似的地方；生物气候相似法使用外来物种的生物学参数与被预测区域的气候数据相比较，找到物种最适合生存的地方；在应用多指标综合分析法时，首先建立了外来生物风险评估指标体系，设立了与传入风险、定殖风险、扩散风险和危害风险相关的34个必要指标，同时也允许用户自行增加需要的指标，通过指标体系对外来生物的各种风险进行量化评估，最终得到物种入侵某地区的风险值。多种分析方法的结果为更精确地预测外来生物入侵被评估地的范围和概率提供了多元化思路，为增加结果数据的可读性，涉及到地理分布的结果都用不同符号显示在地图上。红火蚁是全球100种危害最严重的外来入侵物种之一，鉴于此物种研究资料和文献较丰富，并且对于我国来说属于入侵初期的外来生物，所以把红火蚁作为外来生物风险评估系统的研究案例，不仅能验证系统的可应用性，其结果也可为我国防治红火蚁提供科学依据。系统中三种分析方法的预测结果一致表明红火蚁在我国华东和华南地区的入侵概率较高，事实上，红火蚁目前也已经在我国华南地区的广东、广西、福建局部地区严重发生，从而验证了系统原理的可行性。按入侵概率从高到低，把预测区分为四个级别，分别是红色警报区、橙色警报区、黄色警戒区和绿色小风险区。就红火蚁入侵中国这个事件来说，中国的广东、广西两省处于红色警报区，广大的华东和华中地区处于橙色警报区，这两类地区的政府需要实施针对性的防控措施尽量减少或者避免红火蚁入侵造成了危害；大部分西南地区和广大的华北地区处于黄色警戒区，东北、西北地区多处在绿色小风险区，这两类地区进行日常监测工作即可。更多还原

【Abstract】 Risk analysis and early warning system are critical issues and the most effective and economic measures to prevent invasive alien species and becoming an indispensable part of bio-invasion control. Risk assessment, which supplies information for risk management, is an important part of risk analysis. To facilitate the data management of risk assessment and avoid the complex assessment modules and much data processing, Risk Assessment System of Alien Species were developed in this study using Visual Basic computer language and GIS’ secondary developing module—MapObjects.Climatic analogy analysis, bio-climatic analogy analysis and multi-factors integrated analysis were used in our Risk Assessment System of Alien Species to predict suitable distribution areas of alien species and their invasion probability around the world. Climatic analogy analysis follows the climatic analogy principles and applies analogy deviation to seek sites whose climate matches the alien species current distribution; bio-climatic analogy analysis ascertains the most suitable sites of alien species by comparing their biological characteristics with the climatic data. Regarding the multi-factors integrated analysis, risk assessment index system of alien species was set up firstly, then 34 parameters related to entry risk, establishment risk, spread risk and hazard risk were chosen and additional parameters were allowed as users need, in the end, the risk values were quantified as assessment of entry, establishment, spread and hazard risk through risk assessment index system. Different approaches were used in this study to predict the potential distribution sites, to have invasion probability more precise, to make the predictive results more readable, different symbols reflect risks referring to geographical distribution.Solenopsis invicta Buren is one of the 100 worst invasive alien species in the world and chosen as a case study of our Risk Assessment System of Alien Species to test its application capability, because there are plenty of research document and references about it and also S. invicta is in early invasion period in China. It tested the application capability of our system and also provided scientific foundation to control S. invicta. The predicted results of climatic analogy analysis, bio-climatic analogy analysis and multi-factors integrated analysis confirmed that East China and South China had high invasion probability, which matches the current real distribution of S. invicta in China. Four classes were made according to the invasion probability with red, orange, yellow and green reflecting high invasion probability to low. The results indicate that Guangdong and Guangxi belong to red level alarm ranges, most areas in East China and Middle China belong to orange where need precaution measures to avoid S. invicta invasion, most parts of Southwest China and North China are in yellow, Northeast and Northwest China are almost in green where common quarantine is enough.更多还原