【作者】 杨晴晴；

【导师】 王晶禹；

【作者基本信息】 中北大学 ， 安全技术及工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 通过分析我国煤炭工业在国民经济发展中的重要地位和煤炭企业安全生产现状，指出了煤矿安全是煤炭企业健康、可持续发展的关键问题。针对露天矿山安全生产管理系统存在的不确定性，本文运用灰色系统理论相关知识，提出了矿山事故预测分析模型，通过模型预测事故发生趋向及影响因素关系，为企业采取有针对性的措施提供了依据。其主要内容如下：（1）在对露天矿山安全生产数据统计的基础上，对影响矿山安全生产的主要致因因素进行了分析。（2）将灰色GM（1，1）模型应用到露天矿山事故伤亡率的预测上，并采用残差修正方法进行多次修正，取得了良好的效果，提高了预测结果的精度和准确性。（3）根据露天矿生产实际情况，选定影响事故伤亡率发生的因素，并利用改进的灰色关联分析方法对其进行了影响程度分析，得出其关联顺序，做到有的放矢，掌握安全工作的重点。（4）针对露天矿山使用机械设备生产比重高的特点，尝试采用灰色灾变预测方法对矿山机械设备事故异常年份进行预测，并在数据处理过程中引入弱化缓冲算子，减少了误差，为矿山采取有效的防灾、减灾措施提供依据。本文所研究的内容有很大部分都属于应用性研究，旨在通过本文中基本的矿山安全生产管理指标预测分析模型的构建，为露天煤矿安全生产管理系统的评价及预测控制开辟了一条全新的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis pointed out that coal safety was the key issue of the health and sustainabledevelopment of coal enterprise, by analyzing the important status of coal industry in nationaleconomy and the actuality of safety production of coal enterprise. Aiming at theindetermination in the safety production and management system of strip mine, the thesis putforward accident forecast and analysis model in mine by using grey system theory and whatnot. And through to model the thesis can predict the trend of accident happening and therelative relation of factor, the essay offered the basis to the measure with pertinence thatenterprise would take. The content of the thesis is as followed:(1)On the basis of data Statistics of safety production in strip mine, the thesis analyzedprimary cause factors which influenced on safety production of mine.(2)This thesis applied GM（1，1）model to predict of accident casualty rate of strip mine,and amended on it with residual error correction time after time , which acquired good resultsand improved precision and accuracy of forecast results.(3)According to the actual production of strip mine, the thesis chose factors whichinfluenced on accident casualty rate and analyzed incidence on it with improved greycorrelative analysis methods, which acquired correlative order of it. Thus we have a definiteobject in view and can master emphases of safety works.(4)Aiming at trait that there is a high proportion that machinery and equipment wereused in strip mine, the thesis attempted to adopt grey disasters prediction methods to predictabnormal years of machinery and equipment accident in strip mine, and Introduced buffer weakening operator in data processing , which reduced error and put forward the basis to theeffective disaster prevention and mitigation measures that the mine has taken.The mostly parts of this thesis belonged to applied research. It aimed at opening up new achannel. The new channel is that this thesis opened for estimate and prediction control ofsafety production management system in strip mine by building prediction and analysismodel of indicator of safety production management in mine.更多还原