【作者】 赵姜；

【导师】 胡明形；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 统计学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 本文在分析与借鉴国内外有关未观测经济活动估算理论与方法的基础上，结合我国林业行业的特点与实际情况，对未观测林业经济活动进行界定和分类，认为未观测林业经济具有生产性、非法性与合法性并存、隐蔽性与公开性并存、核算技术的限制性等主要特点；未观测林业经济活动产生的主要原因，既有其他行业未观测经济活动产生的共性原因，也有林业行业特点所决定的特性原因；根据林业的产业特点和数据可获得性，本文设计了供求差额法、普查数据推算法、物量投入分析法、货运量推算法等估算未观测林业经济规模的适用方法。案例中分别运用供求差额法和普查数据推算法估算了我国未观测林业经济活动的规模。最后，针对现实中存在的不可忽视的未观测林业经济活动，提出了相应的政策建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, based on the theories and methods of the estimation in non-observed economy at home and abroad and forestry industry’ characteristics and practical situations, the non-observed forestry economy is defined. The paper thinks, the main characteristics of the non-observed forestry economy are producibility, the coexistence of illegality and legality, the coexistence of invisibility and publicity, the limiting of accounting technique and so on; the main reasons for the non-observed forestry economy in that it has the common factors of general non-observed economy as well as the special factors in forestry; according to the characteristics of forestry industry and the availability of data, the method of balance between supply and demand, the method of adjusting census’ data, the method of using matter’s quantity and the method of freight traffic are proposed as some applicable methods on estimating the non-observed forestry economy. In case, the scale of non-observed forestry economy is estimated with the method of balance between supply and demand and the method of adjusting census’ data. At last, the paper gives advice on the solutions of nonnegligible non-observed forestry economy in fact.更多还原