【作者】 李道峰；

【导师】 张征；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 环境科学， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着淡水资源日益紧缺，合理利用和保护地下水资源逐渐得到社会的广泛关注，水质与水流模拟与预测是评价和保护地下水工作中不可或缺的重要程序。地下水既是宝贵的自然资源，也是与人类生存密切相关的环境要素之一，与地下水有关的科学研究，包括其资源属性和灾害属性两个方面，始终是地球科学家非常重视的课题之一。地下水环境规划也是水环境规划的重要组成部分。但是规划目标的确定以及方案的决策选取，则直接依赖于现有资料的获取。在现存地下水检测网站中，观测站点分布的任意性、随意性和层次不清以及观测数据的冗余性等问题普遍存在，这些问题制约着观测网提供可靠和有效数据信息的能力。地下水污染物兼具随机性与结构性二重属性，所以，用完全确定性的数学方法或经典概率统计方法来研究、描述这类性质的变量都是困难的或根本不可能的，地统计学的出现为这种变量的描述与预测提供了理论基础。这就可为环境监测点的重新布置提供了理论依据，使提高监测效率与监测点的代表性、优化监测网格成为了可能。本文经过系统研究，得出以下结论：(1)在理论分析、专家咨询的基础上，利用整体性、科学性、规范性等原则设计、确立了空间变异性影响综合指标体系，形成了总目标层、准则目标层和具体指标层三级的层次结构；(2)采用层次分析法确定了空间变异性影响综合指标体系中各种指标的权重关系，该权重分配比较充分的体现了空间变异性影响因素的重要程度，经分析发现，溶质属性在空间变异性影响指标中占有很大比重；(3)运用解析结构模型法对具体指标进行系统分析，建立了系统递阶结构解析模型，认为具体指标层中各指标影响具备层次传递性；(4)应用空间聚类原理，对所选研究区域监测点位及监测指标分别进行了空间聚类分析，认为空间聚类分析优于传统聚类分析；(5)对原始数据和经聚类处理后的数据分别进行了空间变异性评价，结果显示空间聚类分析是有效合理的。更多还原

【Abstract】 How to use and protect the groundwater source has been causing social attention widely with the freshwater being in short day by day.Groundwater is not only precious natural resource to us all, but also one of the factors which have close relation to human lives. The scientific studies on groundwater, including its natural and disaster attribute, have been being one of the most important items that cause the geosciences experts’ attention. Groundwater environmental planning is also an important part in water environmental planning. But the determination on the goal of the planning and decision and choice making of the programs are depended on the existing information acquisition. There are lots of problems in the implantation of monitoring points, such as the randomness and turbid hierarchical structure of the monitoring points 、 the redundancy of the monitoring data and so on, which have restricted the capability of the monitoring net to supply reliable and available information.The groundwater pollutants migration parameters have dual attributes of designability and randomicity. So it’s very difficult or even impossible to study and describe such variables through deterministic mathematic methods and classic probabilistic methods. The appearance of the geostatistics has provided theoretical principles to the description and prediction of such parameters, which has provided the theoretical principles to the re- implantation of the monitoring net, and the possibility to improve the representativeness of the monitoring net.The conclusions are as follow: (1) Based on the theoretic analysis and consultation, by means of some principles such as global ,scientific, normative and so on, an indicators system of impact indicator system of spatial virariety is set up and three layers of total target layer ,rule target layer and specific indicators layer are established; (2) through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method, we established a weight system to show the weight distribution of the indicators, which reflected the relative materiality of the indicators,it had been found that the attributes of solutes was the most important; (3) through the Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) method, we analyzed specific indicators ,and established ISM with four layers,the impact of certain factor had levels transitivity,which had provided basis for further study; (4) through the spatial clustering principles, we did cluster analysis of the monitoring points and the monitoring indicators of chose region,it had been found that the the spatial clustering was better than the traditional clustering ; (5) the assessment and contrast of the variability of the original data and the transacted data by cluster analysis had been done, which had proved the cluster analysis was reasonable and valid.更多还原