【作者】 王伟；

【导师】 熊德琪；

【作者基本信息】 大连海事大学 ， 环境工程， 2007， 硕士

【摘要】 随着《建设项目环境风险评价技术导则》的颁布，环境风险评价已经成为环境影响评价中的一个重要部分。对泄漏事故进行合理、可信的风险数值预测，并将结果进行直观的可视化表达是大气环境风险评价中的关键技术。由于风险评价导则实施时间较短，在大气泄漏事故的环境风险预测中，可应用的成型软件还比较少，在图形表达上更是欠缺。利用地理信息系统(GIS)强大的空间数据分析显示功能，模拟泄漏事故对大气环境的影响范围，并在地图上直观表达出来是十分必要的。因此进行基于GIS的大气泄漏事故环境风险预测的研究具有重要的理论和实际价值。 大气环境风险评价涉及爆炸和泄漏等后果评价。本文在研究了国内外相关的理论和应用现状基础上，建立了液体泄漏、气体泄漏和两项泄漏的泄漏量、泄漏液体蒸发量及泄漏扩散的计算模块；引入TNT当量法和爆炸伤害准则对蒸气云的爆炸伤害范围和伤害概率进行预测。 泄漏事故一般多是瞬时或短时间排放，本文采用多烟团模型模拟泄漏扩散，模式的通用性较好，可以模拟不同气象条件下的扩散状况。为了满足大气泄漏事故环境风险预测的需要，系统设置了不同时刻、不同距离计算选项，可以计算在一定的气象和泄漏条件下，任意时刻的有毒物质浓度及扩散范围。 应用GIS与大气环境风险预测模型集成技术，以面向对象的编程语言Visual Basic 6.0为开发工具，通过文件传递的方式，采用GIS组件(MapObjects)进行嵌入式紧密集成，初步形成了大气泄漏事故环境风险预测系统。系统实现了GIS支持下的地图坐标校正，风玫瑰图绘制，计算网格自动划分，等值线绘制等功能，实现了预测结果的直观、快速的可视化表达，为大气环境风险评价和泄漏事故应急决策提供了有力的帮助。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the promulgation of <Technical guidelines for environmental risk assessment on projects>, environmental risk assessment has been an important aspect of environmental impact assessment. Since the time of implementation for the risk assessment guidelines is shorter, the software applied to risk forecast of atmosphere leak accidents is less. Further more, it is absent in graphic expression. The reasonable risk forecast of atmosphere leak accident and making a visual representation are key techniques for atmosphere environmental risk assessment. It is very necessary to simulate the diffusion scope and make a visual representation in map by taking advantage of the GIS’s capacities of analysis and visual expression on spatial data. So it is very important to make a research on simulation of atmosphere leak accident in theoretic and practical significance.Atmosphere environmental impact assessment involves in the impact assessment of leakage and explosion. Based on the analysis of home and aboard theories and applications, calculation modules of leakage rate including liquor leakage, gas leakage and dichotomous leakage and leakage diffusion are set up. According to explosion injure criterion and the method of TNT equivalent unit, explosion injures cope and chance rate of explosion injure are calculated.Emission durations of leak accidents are usually short or temporality. The article employs multi-puff model to simulate leak diffusing. The model is good in versatility which can be used in many kinds of meteorological condition. Base on the requirement of environmental risk assessment, the system sets many kinds of intervals and lengths options which can be chosen during calculation. It can calculate the material更多还原