【作者】 魏均；

【导师】 张绍文；

【作者基本信息】 北京林业大学 ， 管理科学与工程， 2006， 硕士

【摘要】 本文应用实物期权方法对林业投资项目的评价问题进行了研究。文章先总结了我国林业投资项目的评价现状,指出传统评价方法的不足,进而引入实物期权评价方法,指出其在投资评价和项目管理中的先进性;然后分析了林业投资项目的特点及其具有的期权特性,解释了实物期权法在林业投资项目评价中应用的必要性和可行性。而后,文章基于金融期权理论,结合林业自身的特色,构建了基于实物期权的林业投资项目评价模型。为了将理论研究与实际操作结合起来,本文还针对具体的林业项目进行了案例分析。经过分析,文章得出以下主要结论:第一,林业投资项目的期权特征主要表现在以下四方面,一是林业投资周期较长,项目的现金结构与金融期权相似;二是林业投资的不确定性比较大,且不确定性会随着时间变化而变化,类似于金融期权的到期日;三是从自然特征上来看,林木资源往往具有看涨期权的特征;四是林业投资项目的价值由未来增长期权的可能性决定而不是由当前现金流决定。第二,林业投资项目的现金流类似于研发项目,因此可以将项目分为启动、过渡和扩张三个阶段。从整体来看,项目的三个阶段彼此联系,互相依赖。第三,运用实物期权评价法得出的林业投资项目价值包括两部分内容:一部分为传统静态被动的NPV现金流,另一部分为适应决策灵活性的期权价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 Real option analysis applied in evaluation of forestry project was studied in this article. Above all it gave a summary of forestry project evaluation currently in China and pointed out their shortages. And then it introduced real option approach. After analyzing peculiarity of forestry project and its option characteristics, the author explained necessity and feasibility of real option analysis applied in forestry project evaluation. Based on finance option theory and combined forestry features, this study constructed an evaluation model of forestry project. In order to combine theoretic study with applied one, the author used case study, applying the model to a real forestry project which comes from the author’s internship.Finally this study got the following conclusions. First, forestry project’s option characteristics represented in four ways, because of its long cycle, the cash frame of forestry project is similar to financial option. The uncertainty of forestry investment is similarly to finance option’s deadline. From the point of natural, forest resource has the character of call option and then the value of forestry project is not decided by currently cash flow but expand option. Second, the cash flow of forestry project is proximity as research & development items. Therefore, it can be divided into start-up, intergraded and expanded phase. Third, there are two parts in the value of a forestry project evaluated by real option analysis, one is net present value gained through traditional evaluation method, the other is option value which can accommodate dynamic of the decision.更多还原