【作者】 李振霞；

【导师】 李清富；

【作者基本信息】 郑州大学 ， 水工结构工程， 2005， 硕士

【摘要】 工程项目作为集经济、技术、管理、组织各方面的综合性社会活动,它的各个方面都存在着不确定性,因此对工程项目迫切需要加强风险管理。采用风险管理在项目前期能使可行性研究阶段更深入、克服片面性,有利于科学决策;在项目实施阶段,可减少项目施工过程中的不确定性,为项目创造稳定、有序的工作环境,从而防止返工浪费、控制工程造价。在现代项目管理中,风险管理已成为国内外学术界和工程界的热点问题。本文主要以公路工程建设项目为研究对象,研究探索工程项目风险分析与管理的更为科学、合理的模式,即面向项目实施过程的、动态的全面风险管理方法。主要内容包括: (1)结合工程实际,系统阐述了影响工程项目三大目标的主要风险因素,以及各因素的来源,根据先分类后识别的风险分类方法,提出了项目风险因素的多维特性描述方法。 (2)为了保证风险分析方法能尽可能全面反映与项目有关的各种风险信息,能够同时处理定量信息和定性信息,本文从风险因素分类的多角度、多层次出发,提出了风险因素的表格作业法。 (3)基于风险因素的多维特性,建立了评价风险因素优先度以及选择风险应对措施的层次分析法结构模型。 (4)鉴于工程项目风险管理的循环周期体现了项目风险管理的过程性和动态性,本文提出了一个面向过程的动态的公路工程项目全面风险管理体系框架,用系统的、动态的方法进行风险控制,以减少项目过程中的不确定性。更多还原

【Abstract】 Engineering projects are social activities, which integrate with economy, technology, management, and organization. There are uncertainties in each respect of engineering projects, and it need to strengthen risk management urgently. Risk management can further the feasibility studies, overcome the one-sidedness, and benefit to the science decision at the earlier stage of a project. At project implementation stage, it also can reduce the uncertainty, create a steady, orderly working environment, and thus prevent redoing the same work and control the construction price. In the modern project management, risk management has already become the hot issue of domestic and international academia and project circle. This paper explores a more reasonable and applicable method for the risk management mainly in the highway project. An oriented-process and dynamic overall risk management was proposed. The main content includes:1. Combining project reality, the paper systematically explained the main risk factors and the source of them that influences the three major goals of project. A multi-attribute method was proposed to describe the project risk factors, according to the risk method of classification-identification.2. In order to guarantee the risk analytical method can reflect all kinds of risk information that related to the project in an all-round way asmuch as possible, and can deal with both quantitative information and qualitative information at the same time. A risk identification table was put forward based on the classification of the risk factors.3. A risk rating sequencing and a structure model of AHP of counter-measure were set up, based on the multi-attribute of risk factors.4. Because the cycle of risk management can reflect the course and dynamics of risk management of the project. A course -oriented dynamic overall risk management system of highway project was put forward, using systematic and dynamic method to control the risk, and reducing the uncertainty during the process of the project.更多还原