【作者】 王红涛；

【导师】 童玉芬；

【作者基本信息】 新疆大学 ， 人口、资源与环境经济学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 塔里木河下游由于长期断流，造成地下水位下降，植被衰败，荒漠化加剧，“绿色走廊”濒临毁灭，给当地农牧民生存和生产造成了极大的威胁，致使塔里木河下游人地系统严重失衡。“绿色走廊”将塔克拉玛干沙漠和库姆塔格沙漠隔开，具有重要的生态意义、经济意义和战略意义。因此研究塔里木河下游地区的水资源承载能力，优化流域水资源配置，对协调下游生态环境建设、人民生活、工农业发展和水资源的关系，实现塔里木河流域的可持续发展，具有十分重要的意义。本文在分析了塔里木河下游水资源的利用现状的基础上，针对目前塔里木河下游社会经济状况、生态环境状况、水资源状况，以塔里木河地区的自然条件为基础，以该地区的社会经济发展趋势为背景，结合目前该地区的水资源开发利用的实际情况，和塔里木河下游水资源的分配规划方案，并运用系统动力学建模的理论，构建了塔里木河下游水资源承载力的系统动力学模型。通过模型，运用水资源供需平衡的原理，预测出区域工业、农业的产出，最终计算出塔里木河下游的水资源承载力。并根据预测的结果和存在的问题，提出了提高塔里木河下游水资源承载力的对策，为区域水资源可持续利用和区域社会经济的可持续发展提供了一点建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 Because of long-term blanking , lead to the fact the water table to drop, the vegetation declines , desertificate and aggravate in the Tarim Basin river’s low reaches. " green corridor " is close to destroying , it causes the great threat to local peasants and herdsmen which cause Tarim Basin visitor under the river out-of-balance seriously system. " getting green corridor " separate Takla Makan Desert and khoums deserts, which have important ecological meaning , economic meaning and strategic meaning.So study the water resource bearing capacity of the downstream area of river of Tarim Basin ,Optimize basin water resource distribution. Coordinate downstream constructions of ecological environment , people’s lives , industry and agriculture and develop the relation with water resource,are important. it have important meanings to realize the sustainable development of the river valley of Tarim Basin.This thesis is on the basis of current situation of the downstream water resource of Tarim river.Based on the river social economic situation , the state of ecological environment , water resource state of low reaches of Tarim Basin at present, Take social economy development trend of this area as the backgroud. Combine the actual conditions of development and utilization of water resources of this area at present. With the distribution programme of the downstream water resource of river of Tarim Basin. Use the theory of systematic dynamics modeling. constracted the systematic dynamics model of Tarim Basin. By models, Use the principle of the equilibrium of supply and demand about water resource. Predict, output of agriculture,industry in local distract. The author calculate out the water resources capacity about low reaches of Tarim Basin finally. And according to the result predicted and existing problem, the author put forward the countermeasure of bearing the weight of strength of downstream water resource of Tarim river of Basin , offered some suggestions for <WP=4>sustainable utilization and sustainable development of the social economy in the area of the tarim river..更多还原