【作者】 蔡欣；

【导师】 徐绪松；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 工商管理， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 本文从项目管理的知识体系入手，分析了项目风险管理的全过程，对项目风险识别、风险评价、风险监控的程序和方法进行了较详尽的阐述。最后，通过一个建设项目案例重点对投资项目前期决策的风险作了定量和定性分析。 第一章论述了项目风险管理的重要概念、方法和知识体系，如项目的界定、项目管理的知识体系(PMBOK)、风险的内涵及风险管理的内容等等，并着重进行了工程建设项目的风险分析。 第二章主要介绍了项目风险识别的工具和技术。如核对表、系统分析法(WBS)、SWOT技术等方法。考虑到每种方法都有其局限性，因此作者强调应对获取的信息资源进行综合评审。 第三章说明了如何进行项目风险的估计和评估，提出了项目风险分析的工具和技术(如AHP、概率和敏感性分析法)。在进行项目定量风险分析时，首先要有明确的依据，不能凭空臆测；其次应区分清确定性项目和不确定性项目定量分析的方法。在应用定量风险分析的两种重要工具——概率和敏感性分析法时，一是要准确估计出风险变量的概率；二是对概率分析指标，如方差、期望值、离散系数等进行准确的评判和分析。通过风险的量化，可以强化我们风险管理的意识。 第四章阐述了项目风险监控的基本方法。为了更好地实施项目风险监控，制定完善的风险应对计划是必要的，其措施主要有：减轻风险、预防风险(如工程法、教育法、程序法)、转移风险(出售、发包、开脱责任合同、保险与担保)、回避、自留、后各措施。 第五章为风险管理实例。首先系统地分析了该项目可能存在的各种风险因素，然后就其敏感性因素进行了较为深入的定量研究，达到量化评估风险对项目的潜在影响、以及制定并实施计划以便将消极影响控制在最低程度的目的。 该项目总建筑面积13.05万米~2，总投资4.26亿元人民币，地理位置优越，升值潜力巨大。本章首先从地段、周边环境、交通和市场需求等诸多方面对该项目进行了市场调研，然后对该项目在融资风险和合资的组织风险进行了系统的分析。在上述分析的基础上，确立了项目风险定量分析的有关参数，计算了项目的销售收入、经营成本及现金流量表，进行了项目敏感性分析，得出最敏感性因素。由于风险不确定性的本质，对项目敏感性因素进行概率分析是极其重要的。因此首先确定了变量的概率分布;然后根据风险变量的不同组合计算出各个可能事件的净现值;并对各个可能事件按净现值的由小到大排序，计算出净现值大于零的累计概率、方差及离散系数，从而定量地分析了项目的风险，为管理者决策时提供了量化支持。 与国际先进水平相比，我国目前在项目风险管理理论如何应用到项目管理实践这个环节上还有很大差距，尤其缺乏对项目风险管理的系统研究。本文在较系统地研究了项目风险管理的基础上在风险的定量分析上提出了自己的一点见解，以期达到解决实际问题的目的。更多还原

【Abstract】 This thesis begins with the knowledge system of project management, analyses the whole course of risk management and sets forth the method and program of project risk identification, risk appraisement and risk monitoring in project minutely. Finally, It shows a risk case of building project focal point for the investment decision of early stage with qualitative and quantitative analysis.Chapter 1 Discuss the important concept, method and knowledge system of project risk management, such as the definition of project, the knowledge system of project management (PMBOKX the intension of risk, the content of risk management and so on, carry out the risk analysis of building project emphatically.Chapter 2 Mainly introduce the tool and technology of project risk identification, such as checking table, the rules of systems analysis (WBS) , the method of SWOT technology. Thinking of the demerit for every tool, hence author emphasize that we should appraise the gained information resource synthetically.Chapter 3 Explain how to go on the estimation and assessment of project risk , put forward the tool and technology of project risk analysis ( as AHP, probability and sensitivity analysis ). When analyzing project risk quantitatively, first we should have definite warranty, do not surmise risk without foundation; Secondly, distinguish confirmed project from unconfirmed project in quantitativeanalysis. When using two important tools of quantitative risk analysis--probability and sensitivity analysis, one side is to estimate the probability of risk variable exactly; the other side is to judge and analyze the guidelines of probability analysis truly, as square margin, expected figure, disperse modulus. Throughquantifying risk, it can strengthen our sense of risk management.Chapter 4 Elaborate the basic method of monitoring project risk. In order to carry into execution monitoring project risk, it is essential to establish perfect replying risk plan. The main steps is: lessening risk, take precautions against risk (as project method, instructing method, program method), conveying riskCselling, inviting public bidding, the contract of absolving obligation, insurance and guarantee), avoidance, leave behind and measure in support.Chapter 5 A risk management example. First, analyze the various possible existent risk factors of this project systematically. Secondly, study its sensitivity factor thorough quantitative research relative deeply, its aim is to gain the latent influence of quantifying assessment risk for the project, as well as establishing and putting in practice a plan in order to control the negative influence in minimum level.The building has total 130500 square in architectural area, superior geographical location and tremendously potential value, its overall investment is ?4.26 hundreds million. This chapter first studies the market from p\ace* environment all around^ traffic and market requirement, then analyzes systematically financing risk and organic risk of joint venture. On the basis of foregoing analysis, it establishes some parameter of risk quantifying analysis, calculates its selling revenue^ running expense and cash flow form, uses sensitivity analysis to gain best sensitivity factor. As the uncertain essence of risk, it is extremely important to analyze probability factor of the project. So we confirm the probability form of every variable, then calculate present value of each possible event according to different constitutes of risk variable; and sort all possible events according to their present values from small to big, calculate accumulative probability, square margin and disperse modulus, thus analyze the risk of project quantitatively, provide quantitative support for supervisor when they will make a decision.Comparing with international advanced level, our country has great gap on the link of how to apply theory of project risk management to practice of project management, especially short of system research in project risk management. On the basi更多还原