【作者】 吴振宏；

【导师】 刘思跃；

【作者基本信息】 武汉大学 ， 金融学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 1997年，东南亚金融危机爆发，震撼国际金融界，人民币汇率走势倍受瞩目。事隔6年以后，人民币再次成为关注的焦点，关于人民币未来走势是升是贬，还是保持稳定，学术界仍在争论。西方各国也纷纷就汇率问题向我国政府施压。随着我国开放度的进一步提高，如何充分有效地运用汇率政策保持国民经济的内外均衡也成为政府宏观经济调控的重点。因此，构建均衡汇率模型对当前汇率合理性进行评估，以指导当前的汇率政策，充分发挥其在国民经济中的作用具有重要的现实意义。 与实际均衡汇率有关的问题有三个：第一：实际汇率的定义与度量；第二：实际均衡汇率的确定；第三，一旦实际汇率与实际均衡汇率错配，将如何进行制度重构与政策修正。按照这个逻辑，本文的主要篇章布局如下： 第一章绪论部分主要介绍实际汇率的分类和测度，并对均衡汇率的概念和内涵进行了分析，指出均衡汇率错位是内外部经济失衡的结果。 第二章分阐述了当代均衡汇率理论的演变，介绍了当代西方均衡汇率理论和发展中国家的汇率理论和学者们借助这些理论对我国人民币均衡汇率的研究。 第三章对人民币实际汇率进行了实证分析，在前述研究思想的指导下本文建立了一个均衡实际有效汇率模型，并利用该模型对人民币汇率进行了评估与预测。文章认为自80年以来，人民币有三次较大的被低估，二次被高估。当前人民币汇率处于低估的状态，面临较大的升值压力。 第四章对人民币汇率决定机制及缺陷讨论的基础上，提出了完善的建议，并对当前人民币汇率低估问题提出了自己的看法，指出人民币升值趋势是内部经济结构失衡和体制刚性的结果；金融体系系统性风险的积累和可能面临的冲击使人民币未来具有贬值的可能性；发展战略的调整与深层次的制度变革是根本出路。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since Asia financial crises in 1997 which surprised the over world, RMB has been paid close attention to. Six years after that, RMB again attracts the attention of the world. There still exist disputes whether RMB will go appreciating, depreciating or remain stable. Western governments execute great pressure on our government about the exchange rate. With the further opening of our country, our government places emphasis on how to maintain both outer and inner economic equilibrium in terms of exchange rate policy effectively. Therefore, it is of great significance that we construct a exchange rate model to appraise the rationality of current exchange rate, instruct current exchange rate policy and perform the function of it in the national economy.There are three problems as to real equilibrium exchange rate. The first is definition and measurement of real exchange rate. And the second is the decision of real equilibrium exchange rate. The third is how to reconstruct the exchange rate system if it exists the misalignment of real exchange rate and real equilibrium exchange rate. According to such logic, the structure of this paper is arranged as follows:Chapter I is part of introduction which introduces the classification and measurement of real exchange rate. In this chapter, a description is given on the definition and characteristic of equilibrium exchange rate. It is pointed out that the misalignment of equilibrium exchange rate is the result of disequilibrium between outer and inner economy.Chapter II describes the development of contemporary equilibrium exchange rate theories. We introduce the theories of developed and developing countries and study of domestic researchers on the RMB equilibrium exchange rate using the theories discussed above.Chapter III is the empirical study on RMB real exchange rate. We first construct a equilibrium real effective exchange rate model and give a appraisal and forecast of RMB exchange rate. The paper argues that there have been three overestimation and two underestimation since 1980. The paper also maintains that current RMB exchange rate is in status of underestimation and it is faced with pressure of appreciation.Chapter IV gives the improving suggestion based on the discussion of the decision mechanism of RMB exchange rate and its discrepancy. Further more, we give our own views on current RMB underestimation. We point out that the trend of RMB appreciating is the result of structure disequilibrium and system inflexibility, that the cumulated systematic financial risks and possible rushes make it possible for RMB depreciating in the future, that the basic way is to adjust the developing strategy and reform the system.更多还原