【作者】 沈公律；

【导师】 叶航；

【作者基本信息】 浙江大学 ， 金融学， 2003， 硕士

【摘要】 经济增长与发展历程表明，经济波动是经济增长过程的伴生现象。与宏观经济运行过程中一样房地产业也客观存在着周期波动现象。正视房地产业的周期波动现象，分析决定房地产周期波动的内生因素和外部冲击，提出应对周期波动的房地产业政策，对仍处于起步阶段的我国房地产业更是具有重要的现实指导意义。 本文在学习借鉴房地产理论、经济周期理论和国内外现有房地产周期理论研究成果基础上，通过对1978-2003年间的数据的分析，在分析中国房地产周期后，选取近年来全国房地产发展具有代表性的杭州房地产市场进行了深入研究，提出了杭州房地产业周期。并进一步根据目前杭州市区住宅市场供求的现状和住宅市场发展中面临的问题，应用供求理论展开了对杭州市区住宅市场的供求趋势、价格趋势的预测分析，在此基础上提出了杭州房地产周期波动趋势。 论文综合分析了影响杭州房地产周期的宏观政策因素、经济因素、产业因素、心理因素等，并提出了宏观调控杭州房地产业的各种政策选择。对分析杭州房地产周期性波动，及减少波动幅度稳定杭州房地产市场有指导意义。更多还原

【Abstract】 The experiences of economy growth growth growth and development in many countries indicate that economy tluctuation is a concomitant phenonmenon of economy growth itselr.Like macro-economy,the development of real estate industry also shows a phenomenon of periodic fluctuation As for the infant real estate industry in china ,it is of more important practical signiricance to realize the fluctuation in the real estate industry ..analyze the internal factom and estemal impacts giving arise to the periodic fluctuation of real estate industry and raise countermeasures to if.Based on the srudy of Basic Real Estate and Economy Cycle Theory ,having referred to the research achievement of current domestic and foreign real esrate cycle,this paper hereby proved the existence of real estate cycle in Hangzhou by analyzing the data between 1978 to 2001,and probing the real estate market in Hangzhou after comprehdnsively analyzing that of China Furthermore ,it forecast the trend of supply-and-demand and pricing of the urbam residence market in Hangzhou according to the current sratus and the problems encountered during the deveopmcnt of the residence market.Based on which,it pointed out the tendency of the periodic fluctuation in Hangzhou.Having analyzed the factors of the macro-economy policy, industry economy, and psychology that influence the cycle in Hangzhou,this paper proposed the countermeasures to the cycle .It is of important significance for analyzing the fluctuations and decrease the scale of it.更多还原