【作者】 康建英；

【导师】 王金营；

【作者基本信息】 河北大学 ， 人口学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 改革开放以来，河北省的经济有了长足的发展，但与东部其他省份相比，河北省经济发展状况并不乐观，其原因是什么呢?本文旨在从要素分析出发，在新古典模型、内生性新经济增长模型的框架下，对河北省的经济增长问题进行实证研究，找出制约河北省经济增长的人力资本和制度创新原因。本文选取了河北省1978～2002年间各要素的时间序列数据，通过制度创新的合成，量化了制度创新指标，在此基础上，利用人力资本、人力资本水平、制度创新、物质资本四个生产要素进行检验分析，得出了以下结论： 1．河北省目前的经济增长方式依旧主要依靠资本的拉动，资本的贡献率达到84.18％(制度内生于资本时)，仍旧属于粗放型生产模式。 2．人力资本、人力资本水平对于经济增长有明显的贡献作用，但所占份额相对较少，人力资本水平的直接贡献率为5.89％。此外，人力资本水平具有较强的外部性作用，外部性作用贡献率为11.76％，总的贡献率为17.65％。 3．制度创新因素对于经济增长的直接作用以及其内生到人力资本的作用不太明显，但它对物质资本的促进效果显著，在模型四中制度的贡献率达到29.04％。说明了制度创新只有通过人力资本、物质资本等要素才能显示出其外生性的作用来。 通过以上检验和分析，本文发现了一些河北省人力资本积累、制度创新方面的不足之处。最后，本文提出了一些合理建议，为河北省解决今后经济发展中面临的问题提供了一些必要的参考。 本文的创新之处在于整理、计算出了河北省历年的资本投入、人力资本投入、制度创新数据，对于区域经济增长的研究起到铺垫作用：本文在实证的基础上进行了检验分析，找出了适合描述河北省经济增长实际的模型，为政府部门制定经济发展规划提供了理论参考。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since the reform and opening up to the outside world, there has been a great increase in economy in Hebei province. But compared with the other provinces in eastern part, Hebei province is left behind in the economic development. In order to find out the reasons, and starting with the analysis of the economic elements under the framework of the new classic model and the new economic increase model, the author has undergone an empirical study of the economic increase of Hebei province, and found out that it is the human capital and the institutional originality that prevented the economic increase. In this thesis, the author has chosen the data between 1978 and 2002, combined the creativity of the systems and institutions and qualified the index of the institutional originality. Then the author, by using human capital, level of human capital, institutional originality as well as material capital, draws the following conclusion:1. At present, the pattern of economic increase of Hebei province still belongs to crude production model, mainly depending on the promotion of capital, the contribution of capital comes up to 84.18%.2. Though has an evident contribution to the economic increase, human capital and the level of human capital occupied a relatively small share, the direct contribution of the level of human capital only takes 5.98%. in addition, level of human capital has a strong external function, with 11.76% contribution rate, has a total contribution of17.65%.3. The direct function of originality of institution and its function of being internalized into human capital is not evident. But it has an evident promotion of the material capital. In the fourth model, the contribution of system occupies 29.04%, indicating that institutional originality shows its external function only through human capital and material capital, etc.Through these examination and analysis, the author finds that there has been some shortcomings in human capital accumulation as well as institutional originality. What is more, the author puts forward some constructive suggestions to help to deal with the problems in economic development. The creativity of this thesis lies in the fact that the author has organized and calculated the many-year data of capital investment, human capital investment and institutional originality of Hebei province, laying a way for thestudy of local and regional economic increase, having his analysis on the basis of data organization and model construction, the author in this thesis has succeeded in finding the appropriate model for describing the Hebei economic increase, and offered a reference for the government to establish the economic increase planning.更多还原