海湾战争后的美伊（朗）关系探析

【作者】 蒋真；

【导师】 王铁铮；

【作者基本信息】 西北大学 ， 世界史， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 90年代初，苏东巨变、海湾战争爆发，美国势力全面入主中东，伊朗外交进入后霍梅尼时代。美伊关系作为世界霸主与地区霸权的对抗，围绕遏制与反遏制、接触与威慑的斗争在各个领域相继展开。后冷战时代的两国关系经历了“抓住契机、各谋前途”(1991-1992)，“相互攻诘、严重对抗”(1993-1996)，“有限遏制、积极接触”(1997-2001．9．11)，“邪恶轴心、先发制人”(2001．9．11-至今)四个阶段。在这段时期，美伊的外交战略集中于中东、中亚地区，尤其是波斯湾的安全问题，关注的焦点主要体现在中东和平进程、恐怖主义和WMD(大规模杀伤性武器)三方面。由于美伊关系属于双层博弈，美国将对伊关系纳入其整个中东战略中考虑，伊朗则侧重于国内权力平衡，因此任何国际或国内层面的单方面突破不一定会带来美伊关系的实质性改变。伊拉克战争后，美国的对伊政策仍将以外交途径为主，情报打击为辅。而经过拉夫桑贾尼和哈塔米两代务实主义总统治理后，伊朗也越来越意识到实力外交的重要性和国际政治的现实性。鉴于伊拉克战后重建和美国“中东新秩序”构想的长期性和复杂性，未来美伊关系在充满变数的同时仍将具有相当的前景。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the great changes of the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the breakout of the Gulf War in the early 1990s, American influence went into the Middle East completely while the post-khomeini age began in Iran. As the confrontation between worldly hegemony and regional hegemony, the two countries’ relationship around the containment and discontainment, engagement and deterrence, which experienced four stages-"Grasping the chance for each future (1991-1992)", "defaming and conflict seriously (1993-1996)", "limited containment and active engagement (1997-2001.9.11)", "the axis of evils and preempting (2001.9.11 until now)", started in every area. During the period, the foreign strategies of America and Iran concentrated on the Middle East and the Middle Asia, especially on the Persian security and their emphases were embodied in the peace process of the Middle East, terrorism and the Weapons of Massive Destruction. Because the relationship is the two-level game, the United States will put it into its whole Middle East’ strategy. At the same time, Iran stresses on the balance of the domestic power. So the breakthrough of any level, international or domestic, will not result in the essential change of the relation. With the end of the Iraqi War, the United States’ policy against Iran will make the diplomatic method prior to the intelligence strike. After the regime of Rafsanjani and Khatami, Iran recognizes the importance of power diplomacy and the reality of the international politics more and more. In terms of the length and the complication of Iraqi reconstruction and the concept of America’s "New Order of the Middle East", the relationship between America and Iran is full of the uncertainty and considerable prospect as well in the future.更多还原