【作者】 陈晓炜；

【导师】 赵世强；

【作者基本信息】 河北农业大学 ， 水利水电工程， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 无偿无限期使用土地的时代已不复存在，取而代之的是在自由市场经济调控下运行的土地市场，土地也成为一种商品，有偿有限期使用。而土地在自然环境和社会环境中都具有不可替代的重要地位，加之我国人民数千年来形成的强烈的土地情节，使得对土地的投资比其他一般经济活动更具特殊性，这也就决定了土地投资风险的特殊性和不可避免。因此，完全有必要针对土地自身的属性特点，研究确定土地投资项目风险状况的方法以及降低风险的策略。 由于土地投资的形式多样，本文首先将不同投资方式的风险因素进行了对比，并在此基础上，列出了五种主要风险：自然风险、技术风险、经济风险、政治风险、社会风险。在采用专家打分、层次分析法分别赋予各类风险相应的权重值后，文中还给出了运用风险模糊综合评价方法确定投资项目风险程度的基本思路，旨在指导投资者最终的风险决策。此外，由于自然及社会中都不乏突变现象，且土地又同时具有这两种属性，因此本文对以往建立在风险连续分布基础上的风险分析方法提出质疑，认为风险事件很可能是因为风险因素骤然达到某一极限阈值才爆发的。进而，从土地投资实用的角度论文提出了几种降低风险的方法，包括多样化投资方式、获取更多的信息及保险策略，其中对土地投资风险的可保性做了深入分析，并提出在项目风险决策阶段应考虑保险的积极作用的建议。最后，论文探讨了土地投资风险后评价的工作程序和具体内容，以便为未来投资项目的风险分析积累宝贵的经验和历史数据。更多还原

【Abstract】 There is no going back to the era of using land with no payment and no time limit. Instead, land has become a kind of commodity regulated by free market. Furthermore, Land is irreplaceable in both nature and human society, and our Chinese are famous for the strong feelings with land. Therefore, the act of investing in land is more particular than any other forms of investment, which then leads to the particularity and inevitability of risk in land investment. Under the circumstances, it is necessary to study on risk analysis of land investment and to find proper strategies to lower the risk of a certain land project.Considering the variety of land investment, this dissertation first lists the probable risks of each kind respectively and concludes that all these risks can be summed up into five main risks: physical risk, technological risk, social risk, running risk, political risk. After getting marked by experts, the weigh of each kind of risk can be figured out in the application of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). And then, in order to help investors make a good decision on risk, the paper points out the basic ideas of how to use fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to determine the extent of risk in land projects. Moreover, neither nature nor society is lack of mutation phenomenon, and land has both natural and social characteristics. So this dissertation questions the traditional ways of risk analysis, which are based on the continuous distribution of risk. In fact, risk accidents probably come into being when risk element reaches a limited extent abruptly. Then, from the practical point of view, several strategies of lowering risk are proposed, such as more information and insurance etc. Finally, the paper discusses the procedure and contents of risk ex-post evaluation in land investment, which provides valuable data and experiences for future project’s risk analysis.更多还原