投资与消费关系的变动趋势分析与预测

【作者】 方春龙；

【导师】 韦伟；

【作者基本信息】 安徽大学 ， 政治经济学， 2004， 硕士

【摘要】 投资与消费在经济和社会发展中发挥着重要作用，是促进经济增长的两大动力，但是，目前我国投资率总体上升过快，消费率低于大多数国家是一个基本的事实，这是否能够作为判定我国需求结构合理与否的依据呢?投资与消费的关系如何呢?为了回答这些问题，首先简述投资与消费理论，回顾了建国以来尤其是改革开放以来我国投资与消费关系变动的历史，发现我国投资率总体呈现上升态势，消费率呈现下降态势，这与我们所处的经济发展阶段相对应。其次，分析我国当前需求结构，在扩大消费方面存在的主要问题，适当提高消费率，保持消费与投资、GDP的协调增长。论文进一步对消费与投资关系的国际经验进行比较，从世界各国经济发展和工业化进程看，投资率存在一个从低到高的上升、然后再从高到低并趋于相对稳定的演变过程，整个演变过程类似一条平缓的倒“U”型曲线；消费率演变过程则呈现与投资率相反的“U”型曲线。 论文采用的方法是在投资与消费统计关系的基础上，运用投资与消费理论进一步寻找导致这些变化的因果联系。 论文结论是投资率和消费率演变进程是工业化过程中的消费结构和产业结构的逐步提升所引起的。鉴于目前我国处于工业化和经济结构的逐步提升的过程中，投资率和消费率均已接近最高位和最低位，预计今后投资率和消费率仍将在小幅度上升下降中持续较长时间，并会维持10年左右。到2010年——2020年，高投资率将开始逐步回落，消费率将转入上升。更多还原

【Abstract】 Investment and consumption give the important rein to economic and social development and they are two carriages in economic growth . But how can we assess situation that investment rate is higher than the other countries and consumption rate is lower than the other countries is reasonable? What is relationship between investment and consumption?To answer these questions, first, the thesis summarizes the theory of investment and consumption and reviews the history of tendency of investment and consumption in our country since liberation. I find that tendency of investment rate in our country rises gradually and tendency of consumption rate in our country declines gradually. Second, the thesis analyze effect that consumption growth promote economic growth and cause why consumption rate is scant in our country recent years. The thesis gives method to extend consumption. Third, the thesis compares relationship between investment and consumption in the world. From process of economic development and industrialization in the world I deem investment rate rises gradually firstly and then declines gradually. Investment rate curve resemble an inverted "U" and consumption rate curve resemble an "U".On the base of statistical relationship of investment and consumption the thesis seeks for the cause that lead to vicissitude ulteriorly.The conclusion of the thesis is that advancement of industry structure and consumption structure induce change of investment rate and consumption rate. Since our country is in the process of industrialization and advancement of economic structure investment rate and consumption rate situates high and low position. I forecast that investment rate and consumption rate will fluctuate within a little scope for a long time and that will last about ten years. Investment rate will decline and consumption rate will rise in the years from 2010 to 2020.更多还原